Details about Glenn Rudebusch

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Homepage:	http://glennrudebusch.com/
Workplace:	Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Glenn Rudebusch.

Last updated 2023-12-21. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pru10

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Working Papers

2024

1. Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2023

2. Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions
   PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (2)
   Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2023) View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (2) (2023)
3. The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2023) View citations (3)
4. When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022)
   PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2022)
   See also Journal Article When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (4) (2023)
5. Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
   Other publications TiSEM, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management (2022) View citations (23)

2022

6. Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (3)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)

2021

7. On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2019) View citations (2)
   See also Chapter On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2022) (2022)
8. Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020)
   PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2019) View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (13) (2022)

2020

9. Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
10. Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (4)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2020) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Optimal combination of Arctic sea ice extent measures: A dynamic factor modeling approach, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2021) View citations (11) (2021)
11. The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023) View citations (6) (2023)

2019

12. Interest Rates Under Falling Stars
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article Interest Rates under Falling Stars, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2020) View citations (55) (2020)

2018

13. A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2019) View citations (44) (2019)

2017

14. Term Structure Analysis with Big Data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2017) View citations (8)

2015

15. Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models, Review of Finance, European Finance Association (2017) View citations (29) (2017)

2014

16. A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (14) (2016)
17. Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)

2013

18. A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income
    Working Papers, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center View citations (10)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (39) (2015)
19. Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press (2015) View citations (77) (2015)
20. Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2016) View citations (48) (2016)
21. Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2016) View citations (121) (2016)
22. The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)

2012

23. Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Pricing Deflation Risk with US Treasury Yields, Review of Finance, European Finance Association (2016) View citations (5) (2016)
24. The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (71)
    See also Journal Article The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2012) View citations (274) (2012)

2011

25. Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2012) View citations (19) (2012)
26. The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (67)
    See also Journal Article The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2014) View citations (316) (2014)
27. Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)

2010

28. Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article MACRO‐FINANCE MODELS OF INTEREST RATES AND THE ECONOMY, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2010) View citations (27) (2010)

2009

29. Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (84)
    See also Journal Article Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2014) View citations (27) (2014)
30. Risk Premia on Equity and Debt in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)

2008

31. An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (10)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model, Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2009) View citations (65) (2009)
32. Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (143)
    See also Journal Article Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (169) (2008)
33. Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2010) View citations (145) (2010)
34. Long-Run Inflation Risk and the Postwar Term Premium
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
35. The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks
    Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium View citations (41)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2012) View citations (360) (2012)

2007

36. Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2009) View citations (191) (2009)
37. The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (46)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (24)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2011) View citations (210) (2011)

2006

38. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (99) (2007)
39. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (47)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (54)
    See also Chapter Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (101) (2008)
40. The bond yield \"conundrum\" from a macro-finance perspective
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (58)
    See also Journal Article The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective, Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (2006) View citations (79) (2006)

2005

41. Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (150)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2005) View citations (148)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations (123)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (147)
    See also Journal Article Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2005) View citations (148) (2005)
42. Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2006) View citations (254) (2006)
43. The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2004) View citations (16)

2004

44. A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (142)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2008) View citations (225) (2008)
45. The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (598) (2006)
46. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2005) View citations (32) (2005)

2003

47. Macroeconomics and the Yield Curve
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (18)
48. The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (11)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (11)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (10)

2002

49. Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (129) (2005)
50. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2002) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the Euler equation for output, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2004) View citations (227) (2004)

2001

51. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (63)
    See also Journal Article Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2002) View citations (579) (2002)

2000

52. Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society View citations (62)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2000) View citations (13)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2000) View citations (41)
    See also Journal Article Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2002) View citations (327) (2002)
53. Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (23)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) (1999) View citations (33)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999) View citations (4)
    Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies (1999) View citations (38)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1999) View citations (34)
    Working Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies (1999) View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2002) View citations (130) (2002)

1999

54. Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2001) View citations (294) (2001)

1998

55. Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2000) View citations (117) (2000)
56. Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting
    Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies View citations (147)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1998) View citations (55)
    Working Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies (1998) View citations (145)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1998) View citations (149)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations (186)
    See also Chapter Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1999) View citations (703) (1999)
    Journal Article Policy rules for inflation targeting, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1998) View citations (411) (1998)

1996

57. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?
    Working Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi View citations (62)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1996) View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1998) View citations (459) (1998)

1995

58. Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (386)
    See also Journal Article Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1995) View citations (385) (1995)

1994

59. Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1996) View citations (140) (1996)
60. Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1996) View citations (196) (1996)
61. Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (20)
    Also in Home Pages, University of Pennsylvania View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1996) View citations (286) (1996)

1993

62. Is there a bank credit channel for monetary policy?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
63. New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (1995) View citations (127) (1995)

1992

64. The Lucas critique revisited: assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
65. The uncertain unit root in real GNP
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1993) View citations (128) (1993)

1991

66. Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia View citations (53)
    See also Chapter Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1993) View citations (67) (1993)
67. Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    Also in Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (1990) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1992) View citations (61) (1992)

1990

68. International evidence on business cycle duration dependence
    Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis View citations (7)
69. On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1991) View citations (270) (1991)
70. Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
    Also in Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1990) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1992) View citations (57) (1992)

1989

71. Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (68)
72. Internal finance and investment: testing the role of asymmetric information and agency costs
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
73. Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1991) View citations (48) (1991)

1988

74. A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1990) View citations (118) (1990)
75. Ex ante turning point forecasting with the composite leading index
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
76. Long memory and persistence in aggregate output
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article Long memory and persistence in aggregate output, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1989) View citations (303) (1989)

1987

77. An empirical disequilibrium model of labor, consumption, and investment in the United States
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
78. Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1988) View citations (1) (1988)
79. Does the business cycle have duration memory?
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
80. Scoring the leading indicators
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Scoring the Leading Indicators, The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press (1989) View citations (197) (1989)

1986

81. Examining alternative econometric specifications of the disequilibrium model: an empirical study with labor market data
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume
   Journal of Econometrics, 2024, 239, (1)

2023

2. Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions
   Energy Economics, 2023, 126, (C) View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions, PIER Working Paper Archive (2023) View citations (2) (2023)
3. The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105, (5), 1255-1270 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (1) (2020)
4. When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume
   Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 236, (2) View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume, Papers (2023) View citations (4) (2023)

2022

5. Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections
   Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 231, (2), 520-534 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections, Papers (2021) View citations (5) (2021)

2021

6. Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (28), 05
7. Climate Change Is a Source of Financial Risk
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (03), 01-06 View citations (7)
8. Optimal combination of Arctic sea ice extent measures: A dynamic factor modeling approach
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (4), 1509-1519 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach, PIER Working Paper Archive (2020) View citations (4) (2020)

2020

9. Interest Rates under Falling Stars
   American Economic Review, 2020, 110, (5), 1316-54 View citations (55)
   See also Working Paper Interest Rates Under Falling Stars, Working Paper Series (2019) View citations (7) (2019)

2019

10. A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019, 101, (5), 933-949 View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt, Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (7) (2018)
11. Climate Change and the Federal Reserve
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (23)
12. Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices
    Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 212, (1), 26-46 View citations (26)
13. The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019, 2019, (31), 5

2018

14. A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (2)

2017

15. How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (1)
16. New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (5)
17. Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
    Review of Finance, 2017, 21, (2), 511-553 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models, CESifo Working Paper Series (2015) View citations (7) (2015)

2016

18. A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 47, (PA), 5-18 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment, Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
19. Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (3)
20. Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, 48, (7), 1439-1465 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound, Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (27) (2013)
21. Pricing Deflation Risk with US Treasury Yields
    Review of Finance, 2016, 20, (3), 1107-1152 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields, Working Paper Series (2012) View citations (4) (2012)
22. Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (4)
23. Will the economic recovery die of old age?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (5)

2015

24. A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 73, (C), 26-43 View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income, Working Papers (2013) View citations (10) (2013)
25. Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields
    Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2015, 13, (2), 226-259 View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields, Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (7) (2013)
26. Optimal policy and market-based expectations
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (4)
27. Residual seasonality and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
28. The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (8)

2014

29. Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2014, 32, (1), 136-151 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?, Working Paper Series (2009) View citations (84) (2009)
30. Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (10)
31. Stress testing the Fed
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014
32. Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (1), 323-37 View citations (74)
33. The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (3), 233-289 View citations (316)
    See also Working Paper The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases, Working Paper Series (2011) View citations (67) (2011)

2013

34. Expectations for monetary policy liftoff
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (nov18) View citations (5)
35. What caused the decline in long-term yields?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (july8) View citations (3)

2012

36. Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, (3), 454-467 View citations (166)
37. Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2012, 8, (4), 21-60 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields, Working Paper Series (2011) View citations (8) (2011)
38. The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4, (1), 105-43 View citations (360)
    See also Working Paper The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks, Working Paper Research (2008) View citations (41) (2008)
39. The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing
    Economic Journal, 2012, 122, (564), F385-F414 View citations (274)
    See also Working Paper The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing, Working Paper Series (2012) View citations (71) (2012)

2011

40. Signals from unconventional monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.21) View citations (12)
41. The Fed's interest rate risk
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (apr11) View citations (3)
42. The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2011, 164, (1), 4-20 View citations (210)
    See also Working Paper The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models, PIER Working Paper Archive (2007) View citations (46) (2007)

2010

43. Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (s1), 143-178 View citations (145)
    Also in Proceedings, 2009, (Jan) (2009) View citations (19)
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (s1), 143-178 (2010) View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields, Working Paper Series (2008) View citations (14) (2008)
44. Inflation: mind the gap
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (jan19) View citations (11)
45. MACRO‐FINANCE MODELS OF INTEREST RATES AND THE ECONOMY
    Manchester School, 2010, 78, (s1), 25-52 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy, Working Paper Series (2010) View citations (39) (2010)
46. The Fed's exit strategy for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (jun14) View citations (9)

2009

47. An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model
    Econometrics Journal, 2009, 12, (3), C33-C64 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model, NBER Working Papers (2008) View citations (13) (2008)
48. Disagreement about the inflation outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (oct5) View citations (5)
49. Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, (4), 492-503 View citations (191)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve, Working Paper Series (2007) View citations (14) (2007)
50. The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (may22) View citations (35)

2008

51. A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy
    Economic Journal, 2008, 118, (530), 906-926 View citations (225)
    Also in Economic Journal, 2008, 118, (530), 906-926 (2008) View citations (217)
    Proceedings, 2004, (Mar) (2004) View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy, 2004 Meeting Papers (2004) View citations (142) (2004)
52. Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (Supplement 1), S111-S126 View citations (169)
    See also Working Paper Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model, Working Paper Series (2008) View citations (143) (2008)
53. Publishing FOMC economic forecasts
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2008, (jan18) View citations (1)
54. Publishing central bank interest rate forecasts
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2008, (jan25) View citations (4)

2007

55. Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (2-3), 395-422 View citations (99)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (2‐3), 395-422 (2007) View citations (4)
56. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium
    Review, 2007, 89, (Jul), 241-270 View citations (99)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium, Working Paper Series (2006) View citations (28) (2006)
57. Monetary policy inertia and recent Fed actions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (jan26) View citations (4)

2006

58. Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2006, 2, (4) View citations (254)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?, Working Paper Series (2005) View citations (11) (2005)
59. The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 2006, 24, (S1), 83-109 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper The bond yield \"conundrum\" from a macro-finance perspective, Working Paper Series (2006) View citations (58) (2006)
60. The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 131, (1-2), 309-338 View citations (598)
    See also Working Paper The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach, NBER Working Papers (2004) View citations (23) (2004)

2005

61. Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (2), 245-72 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models, Working Paper Series (2002) View citations (4) (2002)
62. Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (2), 415-420 View citations (148)
    See also Working Paper Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics, PIER Working Paper Archive (2005) View citations (150) (2005)
63. Monetary policy and asset price bubbles
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (aug5) View citations (11)
64. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (5), 855-879 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument, Working Paper Series (2004) View citations (4) (2004)

2004

65. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (6), 1133-1153 View citations (227)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the Euler equation for output, Working Paper Series (2002) View citations (2) (2002)

2003

66. Finance and macroeconomics
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2003, (may2) View citations (11)

2002

67. Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty
    Economic Journal, 2002, 112, (479), 402-432 View citations (327)
    See also Working Paper Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers (2000) View citations (62) (2000)
68. Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (3), 417-442 View citations (130)
    See also Working Paper Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2000) View citations (23) (2000)
69. Macroeconomic models for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2002, (apr19) View citations (1)
70. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2002, 49, (6), 1161-1187 View citations (579)
    See also Working Paper Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia, Working Paper Series (2001) View citations (63) (2001)

2001

71. Asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (jun15)
72. Five questions about business cycles
    Economic Review, 2001, 1-15 View citations (14)
73. Has a recession already started?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (oct19) View citations (1)
74. How sluggish is the Fed?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (mar.2)
75. Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83, (2), 203-217 View citations (294)
    See also Working Paper Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world, Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory (1999) View citations (19) (1999)

2000

76. How fast can the new economy grow?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2000, (feb25) View citations (1)
77. Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (4), 707-21 View citations (117)
    See also Working Paper Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998) View citations (9) (1998)
78. Structural change and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2000, (apr28)

1999

79. How did the economy surprise us in 1998?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (mar5)
80. Monetary policy and monetary institutions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (apr16)
81. The goals of U.S. monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (jan29) View citations (3)

1998

82. Central bank inflation targeting
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (may22)
83. Describing Fed behavior
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (dec25)
84. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 907-31 View citations (459)
    See also Working Paper Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?, Working Papers (1996) View citations (62) (1996)
85. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 943-48 View citations (420)
86. Policy rules for inflation targeting
    Proceedings, 1998, (Mar) View citations (411)
    See also Chapter Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, NBER Chapters, 1999, 203-262 (1999) View citations (703) (1999)
    Working Paper Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, Seminar Papers (1998) View citations (147) (1998)
87. Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997
    Economic Review, 1998, 3-16 View citations (119)
88. U.S. inflation targeting: pro and con
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (may29) View citations (8)

1997

89. Interest rates and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1997, (jun13) View citations (2)

1996

90. Is opportunistic monetary policy credible?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1996, (oct4) View citations (4)
91. Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?
    Economic Review, 1996, 3-13 View citations (140)
    See also Working Paper Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?, Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section (1994) View citations (15) (1994)
92. Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation
    International Economic Review, 1996, 37, (2), 283-98 View citations (196)
    See also Working Paper Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1994) View citations (20) (1994)
93. Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78, (1), 67-77 View citations (286)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective, NBER Working Papers (1994) View citations (20) (1994)
94. Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment
    American Economic Review, 1996, 86, (1), 300-309 View citations (160)
95. The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment
    Journal of Econometrics, 1996, 70, (1), 291-316 View citations (48)

1995

96. Erratum
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (3), 679-679
97. Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 35, (2), 245-274 View citations (385)
    See also Working Paper Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure, Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory (1995) View citations (386) (1995)
98. Federal Reserve policy and the predictability of interest rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (jun23) View citations (12)
99. Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?
    Economic Review, 1995, 1-20 View citations (58)
100. New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (3), 806-26 View citations (127)
     See also Working Paper New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance, Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section (1993) View citations (7) (1993)
101. New estimates of the recent growth in potential output
     FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (nov24)
102. What are the lags in monetary policy?
     FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (feb3) View citations (11)

1993

103. The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP
     American Economic Review, 1993, 83, (1), 264-72 View citations (128)
     See also Working Paper The uncertain unit root in real GNP, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1992) View citations (1) (1992)

1992

104. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?
     American Economic Review, 1992, 82, (4), 993-1005 View citations (61)
     See also Working Paper Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?, Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section (1991) View citations (2) (1991)
105. Sources of the Financing Hierarchy for Business Investment
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1992, 74, (4), 643-54 View citations (133)
106. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination
     International Economic Review, 1992, 33, (3), 661-80 View citations (57)
     See also Working Paper Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1990) View citations (16) (1990)

1991

107. Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 73, (1), 1-9 View citations (48)
     See also Working Paper Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1989) View citations (1) (1989)
108. On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives
     Economics Letters, 1991, 35, (2), 155-160 View citations (270)
     See also Working Paper On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1990) View citations (6) (1990)
109. Shorter recessions and longer expansions
     Business Review, 1991, (Nov), 13-20 View citations (1)

1990

110. A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle
     Journal of Political Economy, 1990, 98, (3), 596-616 View citations (118)
     See also Working Paper A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle, Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section (1988) View citations (15) (1988)

1989

111. An Empirical Disequilibrium Model of Labor, Consumption, and Investment
     International Economic Review, 1989, 30, (3), 633-54 View citations (3)
112. Long memory and persistence in aggregate output
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24, (2), 189-209 View citations (303)
     See also Working Paper Long memory and persistence in aggregate output, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1988) View citations (35) (1988)
113. Scoring the Leading Indicators
     The Journal of Business, 1989, 62, (3), 369-91 View citations (197)
     See also Working Paper Scoring the leading indicators, Special Studies Papers (1987) View citations (14) (1987)

1988

114. Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?
     Economics Letters, 1988, 27, (4), 327-331 View citations (1)
     See also Working Paper Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?, Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section (1987) (1987)

1986

115. Testing for Labor Market Equilibrium with an Exact Excess Demand Disequilibrium Model
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1986, 68, (3), 468-76 View citations (2)

Books

2012

1. Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (11)

1999

2. Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (69)

Chapters

2022

1. On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics
   A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 9-28
   See also Working Paper On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics, arXiv.org (2021) (2021)

2016

2. Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
   A chapter in Dynamic Factor Models, 2016, vol. 35, pp 75-125 View citations (48)
   See also Working Paper Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (5) (2013)

2012

3. Facts, Factors, and Questions
   A chapter in : Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach, 2012

2008

4. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
   A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2008, pp 247-289 View citations (101)
   See also Working Paper Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (47) (2006)

1999

5. Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting
   A chapter in Monetary Policy Rules, 1999, pp 203-262 View citations (703)
   See also Journal Article Policy rules for inflation targeting, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1998) View citations (411) (1998)
   Working Paper Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies (1998) View citations (147) (1998)

1993

6. Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence
   A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp 255-284 View citations (67)
   See also Working Paper Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (1991) View citations (53) (1991)