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Details about Glenn Rudebusch

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Homepage:http://www.frbsf.org/economists/grudebusch
Postal address:Economic Research, MS 1130 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market Street San Francisco, CA 94105
Workplace:Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Glenn Rudebusch.

Last updated 2017-07-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pru10


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Working Papers

2017

  1. A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)

2015

  1. Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich Downloads
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads

2014

  1. A wedge in the dual mandate: monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)
  2. Can spanned term structure factors drive stochastic yield volatility?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (2)

2013

  1. A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income
    Working Papers, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2015)
  2. Estimating shadow-rate term structure models with near-zero yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
  3. Modeling yields at the zero lower bound: are shadow rates the solution?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
  4. Monetary policy expectations at the zero lower bound
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2016)
  5. The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads

2012

  1. Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Finance (2016)
  2. The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2012)

2011

  1. Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2012)
  2. The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (44)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2014)
  3. Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (6)

2010

  1. Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Manchester School (2010)

2009

  1. Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (52)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2014)
  2. Risk Premia on Equity and Debt in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2008

  1. An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) Downloads View citations (25)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) Downloads View citations (5)

    See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (2009)
  2. Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (64)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2008)
  3. Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2010)
  4. Long-Run Inflation Risk and the Postwar Term Premium
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads
  5. The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2012)

2007

  1. Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2009)
  2. The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania Downloads View citations (35)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) Downloads View citations (13)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (19)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2011)

2006

  1. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2007)
  2. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (29)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) Downloads View citations (31)

    See also Chapter (2008)
  3. The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article in Monetary and Economic Studies (2006)

2005

  1. Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania Downloads View citations (82)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2005) Downloads View citations (78)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) Downloads View citations (77)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) Downloads View citations (80)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2005)
  2. Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2006)
  3. The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics Downloads
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2004) Downloads View citations (10)

2004

  1. A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (118)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (12)

    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2008)
  2. The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2006)
  3. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2005)

2003

  1. Macroeconomics and the Yield Curve
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (18)
  2. The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2003) Downloads View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (10)

2002

  1. Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2005)
  2. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Downloads View citations (13)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2004)

2001

  1. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (49)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2002)

2000

  1. Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society Downloads View citations (48)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2000) Downloads View citations (13)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2000) Downloads View citations (27)

    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2002)
  2. Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (21)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999) Downloads View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies (1999) View citations (38)
    Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) (1999) Downloads View citations (32)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1999) Downloads View citations (32)
    Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies (1999) Downloads View citations (32)

    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2002)

1999

  1. Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2001)

1998

  1. Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
  2. Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting
    Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies Downloads View citations (104)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1998) Downloads View citations (107)
    Working Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies (1998) View citations (114)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) Downloads View citations (144)
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1998) View citations (47)

    See also Journal Article in Proceedings (1998)
    Chapter (1999)

1996

  1. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?
    Working Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi View citations (58)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1996) View citations (26)

    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1998)

1995

  1. Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (314)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1995)

1994

  1. Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (1996)
  2. Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1996)
  3. Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Home Pages, University of Pennsylvania Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1996)

1993

  1. Is there a bank credit channel for monetary policy?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
  2. New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (1995)

1992

  1. The Lucas critique revisited: assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
  2. The uncertain unit root in real GNP
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1993)

1991

  1. Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia View citations (27)
    See also Chapter (1993)
  2. Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    Also in Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (1990) Downloads View citations (18)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1992)

1990

  1. International evidence on business cycle duration dependence
    Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Downloads View citations (4)
  2. On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1991)
  3. Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
    Also in Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1990) View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1992)

1989

  1. Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (71)
  2. Internal finance and investment: testing the role of asymmetric information and agency costs
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
  3. Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1991)

1988

  1. A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1990)
  2. Ex ante turning point forecasting with the composite leading index
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
  3. Long memory and persistence in aggregate output
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1989)

1987

  1. An empirical disequilibrium model of labor, consumption, and investment in the United States
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
  2. Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1988)
  3. Does the business cycle have duration memory?
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
  4. Scoring the leading indicators
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Business (1989)

1986

  1. Examining alternative econometric specifications of the disequilibrium model: an empirical study with labor market data
    Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2017

  1. New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads View citations (1)

2016

  1. A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 47, (PA), 5-18 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  2. Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
  3. Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, 48, (7), 1439-1465 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  4. Pricing Deflation Risk with US Treasury Yields
    Review of Finance, 2016, 20, (3), 1107-1152 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  5. Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads View citations (1)
  6. Will the economic recovery die of old age?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads

2015

  1. A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 73, (C), 26-43 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  2. Optimal policy and market-based expectations
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Residual seasonality and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
  4. The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads View citations (4)

2014

  1. Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2014, 32, (1), 136-151 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  2. Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads View citations (3)
  3. Stress testing the Fed
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads
  4. Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (1), 323-37 Downloads View citations (18)
  5. The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (3), 233-289 Downloads View citations (81)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2013

  1. Expectations for monetary policy liftoff
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (nov18) Downloads View citations (5)
  2. What caused the decline in long-term yields?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (july8) Downloads View citations (1)

2012

  1. Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, (3), 454-467 Downloads View citations (66)
  2. Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2012, 8, (4), 21-60 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  3. The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4, (1), 105-43 Downloads View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  4. The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing
    Economic Journal, 2012, 122, (564), F385-F414 Downloads View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2011

  1. Signals from unconventional monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.21) Downloads View citations (8)
  2. The Fed's interest rate risk
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (apr11) Downloads View citations (3)
  3. The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2011, 164, (1), 4-20 Downloads View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2010

  1. Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (s1), 143-178 Downloads View citations (57)
    Also in Proceedings, 2009, (Jan) (2009) Downloads View citations (21)

    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. Inflation: mind the gap
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (jan19) Downloads View citations (10)
  3. MACRO-FINANCE MODELS OF INTEREST RATES AND THE ECONOMY
    Manchester School, 2010, 78, (s1), 25-52 Downloads View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
  4. The Fed's exit strategy for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (jun14) Downloads View citations (5)

2009

  1. An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model
    Econometrics Journal, 2009, 12, (3), C33-C64 Downloads View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. Disagreement about the inflation outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (oct5) Downloads View citations (4)
  3. Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, (4), 492-503 Downloads View citations (68)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  4. The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (may22) Downloads View citations (26)

2008

  1. A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy
    Economic Journal, 2008, 118, (530), 906-926 Downloads View citations (94)
    Also in Proceedings, 2004, (Mar) (2004) Downloads View citations (41)

    See also Working Paper (2004)
  2. Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (Supplement 1), S111-S126 Downloads View citations (76)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  3. Publishing FOMC economic forecasts
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2008, (jan18) Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Publishing central bank interest rate forecasts
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2008, (jan25) Downloads View citations (2)

2007

  1. Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (2-3), 395-422 Downloads View citations (73)
  2. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium
    Review, 2007, (Jul), 241-270 Downloads View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  3. Monetary policy inertia and recent Fed actions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (jan26) Downloads View citations (4)

2006

  1. Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2006, 2, (4) Downloads View citations (143)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  2. The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 2006, 24, (S1), 83-109 Downloads View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  3. The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 131, (1-2), 309-338 Downloads View citations (307)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

  1. Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (2), 245-72 View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
  2. Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (2), 415-420 Downloads View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  3. Monetary policy and asset price bubbles
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (aug5) Downloads View citations (7)
  4. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (5), 855-879 Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2004

  1. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (6), 1133-1153 Downloads View citations (168)
    See also Working Paper (2002)

2003

  1. Finance and macroeconomics
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2003, (may2) Downloads View citations (12)

2002

  1. Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty
    Economic Journal, 2002, 112, (479), 402-432 Downloads View citations (237)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
  2. Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (3), 417-442 Downloads View citations (100)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
  3. Macroeconomic models for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2002, (apr19) Downloads
  4. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2002, 49, (6), 1161-1187 Downloads View citations (411)
    See also Working Paper (2001)

2001

  1. Asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (jun15) Downloads
  2. Five questions about business cycles
    Economic Review, 2001, 1-15 Downloads View citations (10)
  3. Has a recession already started?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (oct19) Downloads View citations (1)
  4. How sluggish is the Fed?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2001, (mar.2) Downloads
  5. Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83, (2), 203-217 Downloads View citations (222)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

2000

  1. How fast can the new economy grow?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2000, (feb25) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (4), 707-21 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
  3. Structural change and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2000, (apr28) Downloads

1999

  1. How did the economy surprise us in 1998?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (mar5) Downloads
  2. Monetary policy and monetary institutions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (apr16) Downloads
  3. The goals of U.S. monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999, (jan29) Downloads View citations (3)

1998

  1. Central bank inflation targeting
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (may22) Downloads
  2. Describing Fed behavior
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (dec25) Downloads
  3. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 907-31 View citations (290)
    See also Working Paper (1996)
  4. Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 943-48 View citations (152)
  5. Policy rules for inflation targeting
    Proceedings, 1998, (Mar) View citations (377)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
    Chapter (1999)
  6. Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997
    Economic Review, 1998, 3-16 Downloads View citations (99)
  7. U.S. inflation targeting: pro and con
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (may29) Downloads View citations (9)

1997

  1. Interest rates and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1997, (jun13) Downloads View citations (2)

1996

  1. Is opportunistic monetary policy credible?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1996, (oct4) Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?
    Economic Review, 1996, 3-13 Downloads View citations (95)
    See also Working Paper (1994)
  3. Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation
    International Economic Review, 1996, 37, (2), 283-98 View citations (142)
    See also Working Paper (1994)
  4. Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78, (1), 67-77 Downloads View citations (207)
    See also Working Paper (1994)
  5. Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment
    American Economic Review, 1996, 86, (1), 300-309 Downloads View citations (98)
  6. The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment
    Journal of Econometrics, 1996, 70, (1), 291-316 Downloads View citations (40)

1995

  1. Erratum
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (3), 679-679 Downloads
  2. Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 35, (2), 245-274 Downloads View citations (234)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
  3. Federal Reserve policy and the predictability of interest rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (jun23) Downloads View citations (6)
  4. Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?
    Economic Review, 1995, 1-20 Downloads View citations (52)
  5. New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (3), 806-26 Downloads View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
  6. New estimates of the recent growth in potential output
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (nov24) Downloads
  7. What are the lags in monetary policy?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1995, (feb3) Downloads View citations (6)

1993

  1. The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP
    American Economic Review, 1993, 83, (1), 264-72 Downloads View citations (102)
    See also Working Paper (1992)

1992

  1. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?
    American Economic Review, 1992, 82, (4), 993-1005 Downloads View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (1991)
  2. Sources of the Financing Hierarchy for Business Investment
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1992, 74, (4), 643-54 Downloads View citations (93)
  3. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination
    International Economic Review, 1992, 33, (3), 661-80 Downloads View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (1990)

1991

  1. Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 73, (1), 1-9 Downloads View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (1989)
  2. On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives
    Economics Letters, 1991, 35, (2), 155-160 Downloads View citations (170)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
  3. Shorter recessions and longer expansions
    Business Review, 1991, (Nov), 13-20 Downloads

1990

  1. A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle
    Journal of Political Economy, 1990, 98, (3), 596-616 Downloads View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1989

  1. An Empirical Disequilibrium Model of Labor, Consumption, and Investment
    International Economic Review, 1989, 30, (3), 633-54 Downloads
  2. Long memory and persistence in aggregate output
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24, (2), 189-209 Downloads View citations (224)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  3. Scoring the Leading Indicators
    The Journal of Business, 1989, 62, (3), 369-91 Downloads View citations (147)
    See also Working Paper (1987)

1988

  1. Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?
    Economics Letters, 1988, 27, (4), 327-331 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (1987)

1986

  1. Testing for Labor Market Equilibrium with an Exact Excess Demand Disequilibrium Model
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1986, 68, (3), 468-76 Downloads

Books

2012

  1. Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach
    Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (5)

1999

  1. Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting
    Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (31)

Chapters

2012

  1. Facts, Factors, and Questions
    A chapter in : Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach, 2012 Downloads

2008

  1. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2008, pp 247-289 Downloads View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

1999

  1. Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting
    A chapter in Monetary Policy Rules, 1999, pp 203-262 Downloads View citations (352)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
    Journal Article in Proceedings (1998)

1993

  1. Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence
    A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, 1993, pp 255-284 Downloads View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

Software Items

 
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