Details about Kalvinder Shields

Access statistics for papers by Kalvinder Shields.

Last updated 2023-06-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psh206

Working Papers

2022

1. Shock persistence, uncertainty and news-driven business cycles
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

2019

2. Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
   Also in Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) (2018) View citations (1)
3. The Australian real-time fiscal database: A overview and an illustration of its use in analysing planned and realised fiscal policies
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
   Also in Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) (2018)
4. Uncertainty in a disaggregate model: A data rich approach using Google search queries
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (6)

2015

5. Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US
   Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)

2014

6. Forecasting Global Recessions in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7
   Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (1)

2013

7. Misspecification, Identification or Measurement? Another Look at the Price Puzzle
   Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (1)

2012

8. Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods
   Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2013) View citations (13) (2013)

2011

9. The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis
   Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (2)
10. The Meta Taylor Rule
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Meta Taylor Rule, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2015) View citations (9) (2015)

2010

11. Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One?
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
12. Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2009)
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics (2009)

2009

13. Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2008) View citations (4)

2008

14. Economic Activity and the Stock Market: The Asymmetric Impact of Fundamental and Non-Fundamental News
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne

2007

15. Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities
    Working Papers, University of Otago, Department of Economics View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2011) View citations (10) (2011)

2006

16. Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics View citations (3)
17. Real Time Representations of the Output Gap
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics View citations (8)
    Also in Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005, Money Macro and Finance Research Group (2005) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2008) View citations (60) (2008)

2004

18. Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003, Money Macro and Finance Research Group
19. Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in a Monetary Union: A West African Example
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)
20. Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the use of Survey Data on Expectations
    Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations, The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
21. TIME VARIATION AND ASYMMETRY IN THE WORLD PRICE OF COVARIANCE RISK: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne
22. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (2004) View citations (12) (2004)
23. The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2005) View citations (15) (2005)

2003

24. Do Currency Unions Deliver More Economic Integration than Fixed Exchange Rates? Evidence from the CFA and the ECCU
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (6)
25. Economic Integration in West Africa: Does the CFA Make a Difference?
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (14)
26. Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2005) View citations (32) (2005)
27. The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth
    Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003, Royal Economic Society View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2004) View citations (194) (2004)

2002

28. Non-linear Co-Movements in Output Growth: Evidence from the United States and Australia
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (1)

2001

29. A Nation Divided? Price and Output Dynamics in English Regions
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2003) View citations (2) (2003)
30. Currency Unions and International Integration: Evidence from the CFA and the ECCU
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester
31. Dynamic Interaction Between Income and Health: Time-Series Evidence from Scandinavia
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester
32. Financial Liberalization and the Evolution of Banking and Financial Risks The Case of South Korea
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (3)

2000

33. Is the Franc Zone an Optimal Currency Area?
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (1)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2000) View citations (1)
34. Modeling Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2001) View citations (42) (2001)

Undated

35. Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies
    Discussion Papers in European Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2020

1. Making Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries
   The Economic Record, 2020, 96, (314), 294-313
2. The Australian Real‐Time Fiscal Database: An Overview with Illustrations of Its Use in Analysing Fiscal Policy
   The Economic Record, 2020, 96, (312), 87-106

2019

3. Evaluating the use of realtime data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the USA
   Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2019, 182, (1), 131-163

2018

4. The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics
   Canadian Journal of Economics, 2018, 51, (2), 391-418
   Also in Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2018, 51, (2), 391-418 (2018)

2017

5. An Introduction to Data Cleaning Using Internet Search Data
   Australian Economic Review, 2017, 50, (3), 363-372

2016

6. Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 374-390 View citations (3)
7. Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, 70, (C), 1-17

2015

8. The Meta Taylor Rule
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (1), 73-98 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper The Meta Taylor Rule, Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (1) (2011)

2013

9. Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods
   Manchester School, 2013, 81, 28-53 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2012) View citations (1) (2012)

2012

10. Does one size fit all? Modelling macroeconomic linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 2012, 45, (1), 45-70 View citations (13)

2011

11. Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, (1), 43-60 View citations (7)
12. Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 73, (1), 79-103 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities, Working Papers (2007) View citations (2) (2007)

2010

13. Sign and phase asymmetry: News, economic activity and the stock market
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 32, (4), 1083-1100 View citations (8)

2009

14. Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (1), 81-102 View citations (26)

2008

15. Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 90, (4), 792-804 View citations (60)
    See also Working Paper Real Time Representations of the Output Gap, Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance (2006) View citations (8) (2006)

2007

16. Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations
    The Economic Record, 2007, 83, (262), 303-316 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the use of Survey Data on Expectations, Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

2006

17. Regional asymmetries in monetary transmission: The case of South Africa
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, 28, (9), 965-979 View citations (4)

2005

18. Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (2), 362-370 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2003) View citations (5) (2003)
19. The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa
    Economica, 2005, 72, (288), 683-704 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa, WIDER Working Paper Series (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

2004

20. Is there a unit root in inflation?
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2004, 26, (3), 481-500 View citations (30)
21. Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading
    The European Journal of Finance, 2004, 10, (5), 329-344 View citations (4)
22. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    Journal of African Economies, 2004, 13, (4), 488-517 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, WIDER Working Paper Series (2004) View citations (10) (2004)
23. The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2004, 19, (5), 551-565 View citations (194)
    See also Working Paper The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth, Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 (2003) View citations (12) (2003)

2003

24. A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions
    Economic Modelling, 2003, 20, (3), 651-677 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper A Nation Divided? Price and Output Dynamics in English Regions, Discussion Papers in Economics (2001) View citations (4) (2001)

2001

25. Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    Journal of Development Economics, 2001, 66, (1), 199-223 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper Modeling Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, Discussion Papers in Economics (2000) View citations (4) (2000)

2000

26. Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 62, (4), 463-490 View citations (8)
27. Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–98
    Manchester School, 2000, 68, (s1), 75-91

1997

28. Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets
    The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1997, 65, 118-38 View citations (10)
29. Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 1997, 30, (2-3), 107-25 View citations (6)
    Also in Economic Change and Restructuring, 1997, 30, (2), 107-125 (1997) View citations (6)

Chapters

2022

1. A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination*
   A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 199-215

2013

2. Quantifying time variation and asymmetry in measures of covariance risk: a simulation approach
   Chapter 18 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, 2013, pp 457-476