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Details about Robert J. Shiller

E-mail:
Homepage:http://robertshiller.com
Phone:203 432-3708
Postal address:Cowles Foundation, Yale University 30 Hillhouse Ave. New Haven CT 06520-8281
Workplace:Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC)
Economics Department, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Robert J. Shiller.

Last updated 2011-01-01. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psh69


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Working Papers

2014

  1. Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads

2013

  1. Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (8)

2012

  1. What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)

2011

  1. Continuous Workout Mortgages
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (10)

2009

  1. The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads
  2. Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (13)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2009) Downloads View citations (13)

2008

  1. Derivatives Markets for Home Prices
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics (2008) Downloads View citations (5)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2008) Downloads View citations (5)

2007

  1. Historic Turning Points in Real Estate
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Eastern Economic Journal (2008)
  2. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
    Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (6)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) Downloads View citations (8)

    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2007)
  3. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (6)
    Also in Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2007) Downloads View citations (5)
  4. Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (38)
    Also in Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics (2007) Downloads View citations (25)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2007) Downloads View citations (34)

    See also Journal Article in Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole (2007)

2005

  1. Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Southern Economic Journal (2005)
  2. The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
  3. The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (5)

2004

  1. Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Radical Financial Innovation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads
  3. World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management Downloads
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1995) Downloads View citations (20)
    Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center (1995)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1997) Downloads

2003

  1. One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) Downloads View citations (4)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2002) Downloads View citations (2)
  2. The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) Downloads View citations (16)

2002

  1. From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Perspectives (2003)

2001

  1. Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (65)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (2001) Downloads View citations (225)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) Downloads View citations (60)

    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2005)
  3. Defining Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Research in Economics (2002)
  4. The Significance of the Market Portfolio
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management Downloads
    Also in NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) Downloads View citations (3)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1997) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (2000)
  5. Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (80)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) Downloads View citations (72)

1999

  1. Designing Indexed Units of Account
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) Downloads
  2. Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
    Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)
  3. Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1999) Downloads View citations (13)
  4. World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2001)

1998

  1. Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) Downloads View citations (24)

    See also Chapter (1999)
  2. Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) Downloads View citations (5)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Chapter (2002)
  3. Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Journal Article in Real Estate Economics (2000)
  4. Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (17)
    Also in JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research (1998) View citations (7)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1999)

1997

  1. Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (1)

1996

  1. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations (23)
  2. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (56)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) Downloads View citations (56)

    See also Chapter (1996)
  3. Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (47)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) Downloads View citations (36)

    See also Chapter (1997)

1995

  1. Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1995)
  2. Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
    Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1995) Downloads
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1995) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Review of Income and Wealth (1998)
  3. Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1995) Downloads View citations (8)

1994

  1. Hedging inflation and income risks
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies (1995)
  2. Home Equity Insurance
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) Downloads View citations (6)

    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)

1993

  1. Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1993) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (1995)
  2. Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (15)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1992) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1993)

1992

  1. Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection: The U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads

1991

  1. Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1991) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (1993)
  2. Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (53)
  3. Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (22)
  4. Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (7)

1990

  1. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (85)
    See also Journal Article in Real Estate Economics (1990)
  2. Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1990) Downloads View citations (25)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1991)
  3. Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1990) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1992)

1989

  1. Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (32)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1989)
  2. Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (309)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (1991)

1988

  1. Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Interpreting Cointegrated Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (1988)
  4. Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (1991)
  5. STOCK PRICES, EARNINGS AND EXPECTED DIVIDENDS
    Working Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program View citations (350)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1988) Downloads View citations (384)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) Downloads View citations (12)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1988)
  6. The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (45)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) Downloads View citations (6)

    See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1988)
  7. The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1989)
  8. The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (158)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1989)
  9. The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1988) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1989)

1987

  1. Investor Behavior in the 1987-10 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (23)
  3. Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (36)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) Downloads View citations (36)

    See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1987)
  4. The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads
  5. Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1987) Downloads View citations (3)

1986

  1. Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986) Downloads View citations (8)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1987)
  2. Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
  3. Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (2)
  4. Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)
  5. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (52)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1986) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (1988)

1985

  1. Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1987)
  3. Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (124)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1984) Downloads View citations (33)

    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1985)

1984

  1. Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (190)

1983

  1. A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1984)
  2. Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Downloads View citations (190)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1983)

1982

  1. Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1982)
  2. Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)

1981

  1. Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Economics (1982)

1980

  1. Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1981)
  2. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (281)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
  3. The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (164)
    Also in Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research View citations (9)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
  4. The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1981)

1979

  1. Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Chapter (1980)

1975

  1. Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
  2. Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1978)

1971

  1. Estimation of the investment and price equations of a macroeconometric model
    Staff Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2010

  1. The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System
    Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010, 22, (3), 8-21 Downloads View citations (39)
  2. Trills Instead of T-Bills: It's Time to Replace Part of Government Debt with Shares in GDP
    The Economists' Voice, 2010, 7, (3), 1-5 Downloads

2009

  1. Policies to Deal with the Implosion in the Mortgage Market
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2009, 9, (3), 1-25 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Unlearned Lessons from the Housing Bubble
    The Economists' Voice, 2009, 6, (7), 1-2 Downloads View citations (4)

2008

  1. Historic Turning Points in Real Estate
    Eastern Economic Journal, 2008, 34, (1), 1-13 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  2. The Case for Trills: Giving Canadians and their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation
    C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, 2008, (271) Downloads View citations (5)

2007

  1. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 38, (2), 111-134 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  2. Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2007, 89-123 Downloads View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2006

  1. Life-cycle personal accounts proposal for Social Security: An evaluation of President Bush's proposal
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, 28, (4), 427-444 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices
    The Economists' Voice, 2006, 3, (4), 1-11 Downloads View citations (19)
  3. Tools for Financial Innovation: Neoclassical versus Behavioral Finance
    The Financial Review, 2006, 41, (1), 1-8 Downloads View citations (2)

2005

  1. Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation
    Southern Economic Journal, 2005, 72, (2), 269–283 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  2. Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2005, 5, (1), 1-34 Downloads View citations (167)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
  3. Life-Cycle Portfolios as Government Policy
    The Economists' Voice, 2005, 2, (1), 1-9 Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market
    Economic Inquiry, 2005, 43, (2), 221-228 Downloads View citations (3)
  5. Shiller Comments on Geanakoplos
    American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 2005, 64, (1), 307-310 Downloads

2004

  1. IN MEMORY OF FRANCO MODIGLIANI, 1918 2003
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2004, 8, (01), 1-2 Downloads

2003

  1. From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003, 17, (1), 83-104 Downloads View citations (97)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
  2. Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003, 34, (2), 299-362 Downloads View citations (146)
  3. Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing
    American Economic Review, 2003, 93, (2), 343-347 Downloads View citations (7)

2002

  1. Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components
    Research in Economics, 2002, 56, (1), 61-84 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2001)

2001

  1. World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
    American Economic Review, 2001, 91, (4), 1031-1054 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

2000

  1. Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
    Real Estate Economics, 2000, 28, (1), 1-31 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
  2. The Significance of the Market Portfolio
    Review of Financial Studies, 2000, 13, (2), 301-29 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2001)

1999

  1. Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
    The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1999, 18, (2), 147-61 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
  2. Home Equity Insurance
    The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1999, 19, (1), 21-47 Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper (1994)
  3. Macro markets and financial security
    Economic Policy Review, 1999, (Apr), 21-39 Downloads View citations (14)
  4. Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1999, 50, (1), 165-204 Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
  5. THE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR JAMES TOBIN
    Econometric Theory, 1999, 15, (06), 867-900 Downloads View citations (3)

1998

  1. Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
    Review of Income and Wealth, 1998, 44, (2), 163-82 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

1996

  1. Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78, (1), 156-64 Downloads View citations (31)

1995

  1. Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms
    The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 1995, 35, (2), 119-152 Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
  2. Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
    American Economic Review, 1995, 85, (2), 181-85 Downloads View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
  3. Hedging Inflation and Income Risks
    The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1995, 63, 1-21
    See also Working Paper (1994)

1994

  1. A decade of boom and bust in the prices of single-family homes: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983 to 1993
    New England Economic Review, 1994, (Mar), 40-51 Downloads View citations (7)

1993

  1. Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 45, (3), 387-402 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (1991)
  2. Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures
    Journal of Finance, 1993, 48, (3), 911-31 Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
  3. The theory of index-based futures and options markets
    Estudios Económicos, 1993, 8, (2), 163-178 Downloads View citations (2)

1992

  1. Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992, 23, (1), 127-194 Downloads View citations (17)
  2. Stock prices and bond yields: Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1992, 30, (1), 25-46 Downloads View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper (1990)

1991

  1. Investor behavior in the october 1987 stock market crash: The case of Japan
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1991, 5, (1), 1-13 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  2. Popular Attitudes toward Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
    American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (3), 385-400 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
  3. Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
    Review of Economic Studies, 1991, 58, (3), 495-514 Downloads View citations (342)
    See also Working Paper (1989)

1990

  1. A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend Ratio Model
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990, 72, (2), 356-61 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
    American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (3), 375-89 Downloads View citations (146)
  3. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
    Real Estate Economics, 1990, 18, (3), 253-273 Downloads View citations (92)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
  4. Market Volatility and Investor Behavior
    American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (2), 58-62 Downloads View citations (31)
  5. Speculative Prices and Popular Models
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990, 4, (2), 55-65 Downloads View citations (72)

1989

  1. Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility: A comment
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1989, 31, (1), 127-132 Downloads
  2. Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
    Journal of Finance, 1989, 44, (3), 719-29 Downloads View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper (1989)
  3. Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1989, 12, (1), 47-66 Downloads View citations (49)
  4. The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
    American Economic Review, 1989, 79, (1), 125-37 Downloads View citations (349)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  5. The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (2), 325-31 Downloads View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  6. The dividend ratio model and small sample bias: A Monte Carlo study
    Economics Letters, 1989, 29, (4), 325-331 Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1988

  1. Causes of changing financial market volatility
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 1988, 1-32 View citations (2)
  2. Interpreting cointegrated models
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, 12, (2-3), 505-522 Downloads View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  3. Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends
    Journal of Finance, 1988, 43, (3), 661-76 Downloads View citations (380)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
  4. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
    Review of Financial Studies, 1988, 1, (3), 195-228 Downloads View citations (435)
    See also Working Paper (1986)
  5. The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality
    Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 96, (5), 1089-92 Downloads View citations (7)
  6. The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets
    New England Economic Review, 1988, (Nov), 29-46 View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1987

  1. Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
    Journal of Political Economy, 1987, 95, (5), 1062-88 Downloads View citations (665)
    See also Working Paper (1986)
  2. Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1987, 5, (3), 315-27 View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper (1985)
  3. Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities
    New England Economic Review, 1987, (Sep), 45-56 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper (1987)
  4. Ultimate
    American Economic Review, 1987, 77, (2), 87-92 Downloads

1986

  1. Comments [Behavioral Rationality in Finance: The Case of Dividends] [Anomalies in Financial Economics: Blueprint for Change?]
    The Journal of Business, 1986, 59, (4), S501-05 Downloads
  2. The Marsh-Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of Dividends
    American Economic Review, 1986, 76, (3), 499-503 Downloads View citations (1)

1985

  1. An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility: Discussion
    Journal of Finance, 1985, 40, (3), 688-89 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Testing the random walk hypothesis: Power versus frequency of observation
    Economics Letters, 1985, 18, (4), 381-386 Downloads View citations (143)
    See also Working Paper (1985)

1984

  1. A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
    American Economic Review, 1984, 74, (2), 44-48 Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (1983)

1983

  1. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?: Reply
    American Economic Review, 1983, 73, (1), 236-37 Downloads
  2. Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1983, 14, (1), 173-224 Downloads View citations (179)
    See also Working Paper (1983)

1982

  1. Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information
    Journal of Financial Economics, 1982, 10, (2), 195-210 Downloads View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (1981)
  2. Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1982, 17, (1), 203-238 Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (1982)

1981

  1. Alternative tests of rational expectations models: The case of the term structure
    Journal of Econometrics, 1981, 16, (1), 71-87 Downloads View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
  2. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (3), 421-36 Downloads View citations (646)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
  3. The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (2), 222-27 Downloads View citations (161)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
  4. The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
    Journal of Finance, 1981, 36, (2), 291-304 Downloads View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (1980)

1979

  1. Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital
    Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, 7, (3), 297-318 Downloads View citations (3)
  2. The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure
    Journal of Political Economy, 1979, 87, (6), 1190-1219 Downloads View citations (186)

1978

  1. Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models: A critical review
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1978, 4, (1), 1-44 Downloads View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper (1975)

1977

  1. The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates
    Journal of Political Economy, 1977, 85, (5), 891-907 Downloads View citations (17)

1973

  1. A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors
    Econometrica, 1973, 41, (4), 775-88 Downloads View citations (31)
  2. Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Economica, 1973, 40, (157), 12-43 Downloads View citations (61)
  3. Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1973, 5, (3), 856-60 Downloads View citations (8)

Books

1992

  1. Market Volatility, vol 1
    MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (10)

Chapters

2005

  1. Comments on session 'Aggregation issues', David Fenwick, Chair, with three papers
    A chapter in Real estate indicators and financial stability, 2005, vol. 21, pp 336-339 Downloads

2003

  1. Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy
    A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2003 Downloads View citations (5)

2002

  1. Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
    Chapter 4 in Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy, 2002, vol. 2, pp 105-134 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (1998)

1999

  1. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system
    Chapter 20 in Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, vol. 1, Part C, pp 1305-1340 Downloads View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper (1998)

1997

  1. Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
    A chapter in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, 1997, pp 13-70 Downloads View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1996

  1. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, 1996, pp 155-208 Downloads View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1990

  1. The term structure of interest rates
    Chapter 13 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 1990, vol. 1, pp 627-722 Downloads View citations (111)

1988

  1. Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, 1988, pp 287-297 Downloads View citations (4)

1980

  1. Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
    A chapter in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, 1980, pp 117-167 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (1979)
 
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