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Details about Robert J. Shiller
Access statistics for papers by Robert J. Shiller.
Last updated 2005-04-25. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service .
Short-id: psh69
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Journal Articles Chapters
Working Papers
2009
Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
2008
Derivatives Markets for Home Prices
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
2007
Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
2005
Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
2004
Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Radical Financial Innovation
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
Also in Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center (1995)NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1995) View citations Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1997)
2003
The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations
2002
From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Perspectives (2003)
One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002) View citations Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (2002) View citations
2001
Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (2001) View citations Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (2001) View citations
Defining Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
See also Journal Article in Research in Economics (2002)
The Significance of the Market Portfolio
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
Also in NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1997) View citations
See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (2000)
Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (2001) View citations
1999
Designing Indexed Units of Account
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1998)
Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center View citations
See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)
Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1999) View citations
World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2001)
1998
Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations
Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (1998) View citations Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1998) View citations
Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1998) View citations
Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research (1998) View citations NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998)
1997
Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
1996
A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations
A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations
See also Chapter (1996)
Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations
See also Chapter (1997)
1995
Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1995)
Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1995) Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center (1995) View citations
See also Journal Article in Review of Income and Wealth (1998)
Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1995) View citations
1994
Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1991) View citations
See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (1993)
Hedging inflation and income risks
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
See also Journal Article in The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies (1995)
Home Equity Insurance
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) View citations
See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)
1993
Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1993) View citations
See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (1995)
Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures
NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1992) View citations
Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1990) View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1992)
1992
Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection: The U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
1991
Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1990)
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1991)
Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (1991)
1990
Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1988)
Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
1989
Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Interpreting Cointegrated Models
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1988) View citations Working Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program (1988) View citations
The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1988) View citations
See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1988)
The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1986) View citations
See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (1988)
The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1989)
The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1988) View citations
See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1989)
1988
Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1986) View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1987)
Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
1987
Investor Behavior in the 1987-10 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1987) View citations
See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1987)
The Term Structure of Interest Rates
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1987) View citations
1986
Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
1985
Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1987)
Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1984) View citations
1984
Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
1983
A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1984)
Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
1982
Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression
NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
1981
Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
Also in Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research View citations
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
1980
Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
1979
Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
See also Chapter (1980)
1975
Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
1971
Estimation of the investment and price equations of a macroeconometric model
Staff Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Journal Articles
2005
Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market
Economic Inquiry , 2005, 43 , (2), 221-228
Shiller Comments on Geanakoplos
American Journal of Economics and Sociology , 2005, 64 , (1), 307-310
2003
From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance
Journal of Economic Perspectives , 2003, 17 , (1), 83-104 View citations
See also Working Paper (2002)
Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing
American Economic Review , 2003, 93 , (2), 343-347 View citations
2002
Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components
Research in Economics , 2002, 56 , (1), 61-84
See also Working Paper (2001)
2001
World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
American Economic Review , 2001, 91 , (4), 1031-1054 View citations
See also Working Paper (1999)
2000
The Significance of the Market Portfolio
Review of Financial Studies , 2000, 13 , (2), 301-29 View citations
See also Working Paper (2001)
1999
Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 1999, 18 , (2), 147-61 View citations
See also Working Paper (1999)
Home Equity Insurance
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 1999, 19 , (1), 21-47 View citations
See also Working Paper (1994)
Macro markets and financial security
Economic Policy Review , 1999, (Apr), 21-39 View citations
1998
Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
Review of Income and Wealth , 1998, 44 , (2), 163-82 View citations
See also Working Paper (1995)
1996
Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection
The Review of Economics and Statistics , 1996, 78 , (1), 156-64 View citations
1995
Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance , 1995, 35 , (2), 119-152 View citations
See also Working Paper (1993)
Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
American Economic Review , 1995, 85 , (2), 181-85 View citations
See also Working Paper (1995)
Hedging Inflation and Income Risks
The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies , 1995, 63 , 1-21
See also Working Paper (1994)
1994
A decade of boom and bust in the prices of single-family homes: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983 to 1993
New England Economic Review , 1994, (Mar), 40-51 View citations
1993
Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices
Oxford Economic Papers , 1993, 45 , (3), 387-402 View citations
See also Working Paper (1994)
1992
Stock prices and bond yields: Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?
Journal of Monetary Economics , 1992, 30 , (1), 25-46 View citations
See also Working Paper (1993)
1991
Popular Attitudes toward Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
American Economic Review , 1991, 81 , (3), 385-400 View citations
See also Working Paper (1991)
Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
Review of Economic Studies , 1991, 58 , (3), 495-514 View citations
See also Working Paper (1991)
1990
A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend Ratio Model
The Review of Economics and Statistics , 1990, 72 , (2), 356-61 View citations
Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
American Economic Review , 1990, 80 , (3), 375-89 View citations
Market Volatility and Investor Behavior
American Economic Review , 1990, 80 , (2), 58-62 View citations
Speculative Prices and Popular Models
Journal of Economic Perspectives , 1990, 4 , (2), 55-65 View citations
1989
The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
American Economic Review , 1989, 79 , (1), 125-37 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts
The Review of Economics and Statistics , 1989, 71 , (2), 325-31 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
1988
Causes of changing financial market volatility
Proceedings , 1988, 1-32 View citations
The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
Review of Financial Studies , 1988, 1 , (3), 195-228 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality
Journal of Political Economy , 1988, 96 , (5), 1089-92 View citations
The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets
New England Economic Review , 1988, (Nov), 29-46 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
1987
Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
Journal of Political Economy , 1987, 95 , (5), 1062-88 View citations
See also Working Paper (1988)
Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 1987, 5 , (3), 315-27 View citations
See also Working Paper (1985)
Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities
New England Economic Review , 1987, (Sep), 45-56 View citations
See also Working Paper (1987)
Ultimate
American Economic Review , 1987, 77 , (2), 87-92
1986
Comments [Behavioral Rationality in Finance: The Case of Dividends] [Anomalies in Financial Economics: Blueprint for Change?]
Journal of Business , 1986, 59 , (4), S501-05
The Marsh-Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of Dividends
American Economic Review , 1986, 76 , (3), 499-503
1984
A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
American Economic Review , 1984, 74 , (2), 44-48 View citations
See also Working Paper (1983)
1983
Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?: Reply
American Economic Review , 1983, 73 , (1), 236-37
1981
Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
American Economic Review , 1981, 71 , (3), 421-36 View citations
See also Working Paper (1981)
The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
American Economic Review , 1981, 71 , (2), 222-27 View citations
See also Working Paper (1981)
1979
The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure
Journal of Political Economy , 1979, 87 , (6), 1190-1219 View citations
1977
The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates
Journal of Political Economy , 1977, 85 , (5), 891-907 View citations
1973
A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors
Econometrica , 1973, 41 , (4), 775-88 View citations
Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Economica , 1973, 40 , (157), 12-43 View citations
Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 1973, 5 , (3), 856-60 View citations
Chapters
1997
Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
A chapter in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy , 1997, pp 13-70 View citations
See also Working Paper (1996)
1996
A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11 , 1996, pp 155-208 View citations
See also Working Paper (1996)
1988
Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash
A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3 , 1988, pp 287-297 View citations
1980
Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
A chapter in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy , 1980, pp 117-167 View citations
See also Working Paper (1979)