Experts' Stated Behavior
Youssef Boulaksil and
Philip Hans Franses
ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam
Abstract:
We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.
Keywords: decision making; expert forecasts; model forecasts; stated behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C44 C53 M M31 M39 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-01-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
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Journal Article: Experts' Stated Behavior (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:eureri:10900
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