The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets

Gerben de Zwart and Dick van Dijk

ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information for firm-level earnings growth. Analysts do incorporate output growth forecasts, but these actually bear no relevant information for firm-level earnings growth. Inflation forecasts are taken into account correctly. In addition, the information environment appears to be crucially important in emerging markets, as we find evidence that analysts handle macroeconomic information in a better way for more transparent firms.

Keywords: analysts' earnings forecasts; emerging markets; forecast accuracy; macroeconomic forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G24 G3 M (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-03-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repub.eur.nl/pub/11556/ERS-2008-007-F&A.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:eureri:11556

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RePub ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).