Finding the Influentials that Drive the Diffusion of New Technologies

Carlos Hernández-Mireles

ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam

Abstract: In this article we put forward a model where aggregate sales are a function of the online search of potential consumers at many locations. We argue that a location may be influential because of its power to drive aggregate sales and this power may be dynamic and evolving in time. Second, the influential locations may produce spillover effects over their neighbors and hence we may observe clusters of influence. We apply Bayesian Variable Selection (BVS) techniques and we use Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Models (MCAR) to identify influentials locations and their clustering. Our results indicate that the influential locations and their economic value (measured by search elasticities) vary over time. Moreover, we find significant geographical clusters of influential locations and the clusters composition varies during the life-cycle of the consoles. Finally, we find weak evidence that demographics explain the probability of a location to be influential.

Keywords: diffusion; new products; spatial modeling; variable selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C44 M M31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-05-31
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