Good News is No News

Dick van Dijk

ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Abstract: News plays a crucial role in determining prices in financial markets. In an efficient market, current prices fully and correctly reflect all available information, such that only truly new information leads to price adjustment. This lecture shows that using high-frequency data makes it possible to accurately measure the reaction of stock prices on the New York stock exchange to new information related to the Federal funds target rate. An unexpected change in the target rate of 25 basis points leads to a return of slightly more than one percent within five minutes after the news announcement. Furthermore, the effects of positive and negative news on stock prices are fundamentally different. In case of positive news the stock market reaction depends upon the magnitude of the unexpected decrease of the interest rate; in case of negative news, stock prices only respond to the fact that an unexpected rate increase occurs.

Keywords: Federal funds target rate; factor analysis; high-frequency data; interest rate surprises; large data sets; model instability; monetary announcements; stock return predictability; structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G3 M (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-11-15
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:euriar:10857

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