Examination on the Relationship Between VHSI, HSI and Future Realized Volatility With Kalman Filter

Yanhui Chen () and Kin Lai ()

Eurasian Business Review, 2013, vol. 3, issue 2, 200-216

Abstract: Hang Seng Index Volatility (VHSI) is a new barometer to research the variance of Hang Seng Index (HSI). This paper first explores how VHSI changes are influenced by HSI returns dynamically. The time-varying coefficients achieved by Kalman filter indicate a negative and asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between VHSI changes and HSI returns. More importantly, we find that this asymmetric effect is stronger in Hong Kong than that in US since the investors are more sensitive to negative returns. Second, this paper studies the relationship between VHSI and the future realized volatility of HSI, and predicts the future realized volatility of HSI with Kalman filter. The empirical findings suggest that VHSI is an unbiased and efficient estimate of the future realized volatility and includes information of the future realized volatility when employing monthly data. In addition, the predication performance of Kalman filter is better than linear regression model. Copyright Eurasia Business and Economics Society 2013

Keywords: VHSI; HSI; Kalman Filter; Asymmetric Effect; Future Realized Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.14208/ebr.2013.03.02.005 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:eurasi:v:3:y:2013:i:2:p:200-216

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/40821

DOI: 10.14208/ebr.2013.03.02.005

Access Statistics for this article

Eurasian Business Review is currently edited by Marco Vivarelli

More articles in Eurasian Business Review from Springer, Eurasia Business and Economics Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().