A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques

Dominique Guegan () and Patrick Rakotomarolahy ()
Additional contact information
Dominique Guegan: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Patrick Rakotomarolahy: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark.

Keywords: Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor; Radial Basis Functions; Non-Parametric Forecasts; Economic indicators; GDP; Euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00460472v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Economics Bulletin, 2010, 30 (1), pp.508-518

Downloads: (external link)
https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00460472v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00460472

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().