A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques

Dominique Guegan () and Patrick Rakotomarolahy ()
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Dominique Guegan: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Patrick Rakotomarolahy: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbors method; radial basis function method; non-parametric; forecasts; GDP; Euro-area.; Les plus proches voisins; les fonctions radiales; méthodes non paramétriques; prévisions; PIB; Euro-zone. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00461711v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in 2010

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Related works:
Journal Article: A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00461711

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