Value at Risk Computation in a Non-Stationary Setting

Dominique Guegan ()
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Dominique Guegan: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: This chapter recalls the main tools useful to compute Value at Risk associated with a m-dimensional portfolio. Then, the limitations of the use of these tools is explained, as soon as non-stationarities are observed in time series. Indeed, specific behaviours observed by financial assets, like volatility, jumps, explosions, and pseudo-seasonalities, provoke non-stationarities which affect the distribution function of the portfolio. Thus, a new way for computing VaR is proposed which allows the potential non-invariance of the m-dimensional portfolio distribution function to be avoided.

Keywords: Non-stationarity; Value-at-Risk; Dynamic copula -Meta-distribution; POT method.; POT method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00511995v1
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Published in Greg N. Gregoriou, Carsten S. Wehn, Christian Hoppe. Handbook on Model Risk : Measuring, managing and mitigating model risk, lessons from financial crisis, John Wiley, 431-454 - chapter 19, 2010

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