Les transports en Chine en 2050: rapport final

Dominique Bouf (), Pierre-Yves Péguy (), Stéphanie Souche-Le Corvec, Jean-Louis Routhier () and Nicolas Ovtracht ()
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Dominique Bouf: LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Pierre-Yves Péguy: LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Jean-Louis Routhier: LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nicolas Ovtracht: LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Transportation in China in 2050. -Several studies have concluded that, in 2050, China will be developed, with a GDP per capita comparable to Japan in 2000. This result derives from reasonable assumptions on the economic and demographic evolution of China, the report BRIC (Goldman and Sachs) being the most popular example of this kind of projections. The objective of this report is to envision how China can cope with such a fast growth, as transportation infrastructures appear very poor, as of 2000. Will the economic growth or the mobility be constrained by insufficient transport investment?The strong economic growth of China is coming after several other examples, notably Japan and Korea. What is more specific to China is the size of the population, the extent of the territory, combined with its density (in the East and Center regions). So China is facing unprecedented challenges, to serve this vast territory. In this presentation, we will address the question of interurban transportation and urban transportation. The basic methodology is to compare China to currently developed countries. To that end, various scenarios are built on macro economics, demographics, urbanization and regional balance.Then the methodology relies on various approaches:- comparison with existing developed countries ;- projections according to different methods;- modeling (China is supposed to be comparable to a sample of countries, given some explanatory variables).The main conclusions are the following:- China economic growth will be hindered by the insufficient capacity of the inter urban network, this might be the cause of serious regional imbalance. - Thus China will have a large car fleet but the yearly mileage of these vehicles will be very low according to international standards;- Regarding urban transportation, some serious TDM measures will be needed, if the current trend of urbanization keeps on the same pace.

Keywords: China; Long term modeling; urban transport; interurban transport; harbors; airports; GIS; Shanghai; Beijing; car fleet; 2050; Chine; modélisation à long terme; transport urbain; transport interubain; ports; aéroports; prospective; scénarios; Système d'Information Géographique (SIG); Pékin; élasticités; tonnes.kilomètres; voyageurs.kilomètres; parc de véhicules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-04
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Published in 2006

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