Healthy aging versus demographic trends: the French case, estimated by markovian microsimulation methods

Sophie Thiébaut, Andrew Armstrong and Bruno Ventelou
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Sophie Thiébaut: GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SESSTIM - U912 INSERM - Aix Marseille Univ - IRD - Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
Andrew Armstrong: NATSEM - National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling

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Abstract: The Objective of this paper is to test the consequences of changes in health status of future cohorts of French elderly on healthcare expenditures. We value the precise effect of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on health expenditures for 2025 by using a markovian microsimulation model for a representative database of the contemporary cohorts in France. The originality of these simulations holds in the use of an aggregate indicator of morbidity-mortality, capturing a vital risk and making possible to adapt the quantification of the life expectancies by taking into account of a life without incapacity and/or of the presence of severe pathologies. We forecast a reliable range for future national health spending, under different epidemiological scenarios of morbidity: benchmark case (BM), healthy aging (HA), healthy aging and medical progress (AM). We obtain an evaluation of the annual growth rates in health expenditure accounted for solely by aging: +1.18%; +0.95%; +1.38% according to the scenarios BM; HA; AM. In short, the effective decreases in morbidity rates are not sufficient enough to compensate the massive arrival of baby-boomers at elderly age in France for the period 2010- 2025.

Keywords: health; health policy; simulation method; econometrics; social security; planning Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-12-30
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00443566v1
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