Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learnig

Mikael Bask and Carina Selander

No 6/2007, Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: The aim of this paper is threefold: (i) to investigate if there is a unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in the small open economy in Gall and Monacelli (2005) that is augmented with technical trading in the foreign exchange market; (ii) to investigate if the unique REE is adaptively learnable in a recursive least squares sense; and (iii) to investigate if the unique and adaptively learnable REE is desirable in an inflation rate targeting regime in the sense that a low and not too variable CPI inflation rate in equilibrium is achieved. The monetary authority is using a Taylor rule when setting the nominal interest rate, and we investigate numerically the properties of the model developed. A main conclusion is that the monetary authority should increase (decrease) the interest rate when the CPI inflation rate increases (decreases) and when the currency gets stronger (weaker) to have a desirable rule that is robust with respect to the degree of technical trading in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the value of the currency is a better response variable than the output gap in the most desirable parametrizations of the interest rate rule.

Keywords: determinacy; foreign exchange; inflation rate targeting regime; interest rate rule; robust monetary policy; technical trading (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212064/1/bof-rdp2007-006.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2007_006

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().