Towards a monthly business cycle chronology for the euro area

Emanuel Mönch and Harald Uhlig (huhlig@uchicago.edu)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Emanuel Moench

No 2005-023, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk

Abstract: This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine. we construct several monthly series of Euro area GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration across business cycle phases, we propose to extend this method with a combined amplitude/phase-length criterion ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of the NBER and the CEPR.

Keywords: business cycle; European business cycle; Euro area; Bry-Boschan; NBER methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C22 C82 E32 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25042/1/496772325.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area (2005)
Working Paper: Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-023

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (econstor@zbw-workspace.eu).