How much of the macroeconomic variation in Eastern Europe is attributable to external shocks

Bartosz Maćkowiak

No 2005-061, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk

Abstract: We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks.

Date: 2005
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Journal Article: How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks? (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-061

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