The dynamics of hourly electricity prices

Wolfgang Härdle and Stefan Trück

No 2010-013, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk

Abstract: The dynamics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets is an important element of competitive power markets that were only established in the last decade. In electricity markets, the market microstructure does not allow for continuous trading, since operators require advance notice in order to verify that the schedule is feasible and lies within transmission constraints. Instead agents have to submit their bids and offers for delivery of electricity for all hours of the next day before a specified market closing time. We suggest the use of dynamic semiparametric factor models (DSFM) for the behavior of hourly electricity prices. We find that a model with three factors is able to explain already a high proportion of the variation in hourly electricity prices. Our analysis also provides insights into the characteristics of the market, in particular with respect to the driving factors of hourly prices and their dynamic behavior through time.

Keywords: Power Markets; Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models; Day-ahead Electricity Prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C19 G12 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39311/1/62384544X.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-013

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().