Is there an asymmetric impact of housing on output?

Tsung-Hsien Michael Lee and Wenjuan Chen

No 2015-020, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk

Abstract: Numerous papers have tried to understand housing's role in the economy and have not reached an agreement. In this paper we turn to the asymmetric relationship between housing and the overall economic activity. We find that the relation between building permits and GDP is regime-dependent. Causality analysis suggests that the housing variable leads output only in the regime associated with periods when the housing and business cycles are experiencing contractions. Our findings not only echo the argument that housing leads the business cycles, but also show that it has time-varying effect on the overall economic activity.

Keywords: Housing; Business Cycles; Regime-switching; Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C34 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/119428/1/826614175.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2015-020

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().