Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Improving GDP Forecasting

International Monetary Fund

No 2017/270, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for improving GDP forecasting in Uganda. GDP forecasting, ranging from a quarterly to a five-year horizon, must be improved using the tools that are now available at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED). The five-year forecast can be fruitfully used in the medium-term projections of government revenue, deficit and debt. The short-term forecasts should be systematically integrated within the (annual) sectoral forecasts currently being done at the MoFPED. While considering the set of tools under development, the IMF mission recommends the deployment of these tools in a more urgent manner, to stimulate learning-by-doing of local staff.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; potential GDP; production function; carry-over; MoFPED; GDP estimate; quarterly GDP; forecasting GDP; GDP ratio; GDP Nowcasts; GDP release; GDP forecasting capacity; GDP forecasting; Total factor productivity; East Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2017-09-15
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45233 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfscr:2017/270

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().