A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

Oliver Holtemöller, Maike Irrek and Birgit Schultz

No 11/2012, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

Keywords: regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change; regionale Wachstumsprojektion; ökonomische Konvergenz; demographischer Wandel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12

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