Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy

Oliver Holtemöller and Sushanta Mallick ()

No 15/2015, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period from 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques.

Keywords: commodity prices; food prices; New-Keynesian macroeconometric model; inflation; India; structural vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E31 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-15-15

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