Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators
Katja Drechsel,
Sebastian Giesen and
Axel Lindner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katja Heinisch
No 4/2014, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
Abstract:
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
Keywords: IMF WEO forecasts; leading indicators; real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E02 E32 E37 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/95949/1/782622488.pdf (application/pdf)
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Working Paper: Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators (2014) 
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-4-14
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