Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments

Cars Hommes and Thomas Lux

No 1466, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.

Keywords: Learning; heterogeneous expectations; genetic algorithms; experimental economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 C92 D83 D84 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: INDIVIDUAL EXPECTATIONS AND AGGREGATE BEHAVIOR IN LEARNING-TO-FORECAST EXPERIMENTS (2013)
Working Paper: Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forcast Experiments (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1466

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