Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany

Nolan Ritter and Colin Vance

No 385, Ruhr Economic Papers from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract: Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into fewer cars at the national level. Beyond identifying several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the price for fuel, the supply of public transit, and land use features, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socioeconomic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that could be partially offset by substantial increases in fuel prices.

Keywords: car ownership; demographic change; Germany; multinomial logit; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 D10 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany (2013)
Journal Article: Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:rwirep:385

DOI: 10.4419/86788440

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