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Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy

Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud () and Keyu Jin
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Stéphane Guibaud: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science
Keyu Jin: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science

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Abstract: In a period of rapid integration and accelerated growth in emerging markets, three striking trends have been (1) a divergence in the private saving rates of emerging markets and advanced economies, (2) large net capital outflows from emerging markets, and (3) a sustained decline in the world interest rate. This paper shows that in a multi-period OLG model, the interaction between growth and household credit constraints --- more severe in emerging markets --- is able to account for all of the above facts. We provide micro-level evidence that corroborates our mechanism: saving behaviors across age groups in the U.S. and China are broadly supportive of the predictions of the model.

Keywords: capital flows; credit constraints; Globalization; life-cycle household savings; saving and current account imbalances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-08-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03473915
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