The state-dependence of output revisions

Bruno Ducoudré, Paul Hubert and Guilhem Tabarly
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Guilhem Tabarly: Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

Keywords: Gross domestic product; National accounts; Revision analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03403073v1
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Related works:
Journal Article: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
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