American Economic Review

1969 - 2009

Edited by Robert Moffitt

from American Economic Association
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Volume 99, issue 4, 2009

Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle? pp. 1097-1118

Nir Jaimovich and Sergio Rebelo

Portfolio Claustrophobia: Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets pp. 1119-44

Francis A. Longstaff

Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence pp. 1145-77

Raj Chetty, Adam Looney and Kory Kroft

Decentralized Organizational Learning: An Experimental Investigation pp. 1178-1205

Andreas Blume, John Duffy and April M. Franco

Think Locally, Act Locally: Spillovers, Spillbacks, and Efficient Decentralized Policymaking pp. 1206-17

Hikaru Ogawa and David E. Wildasin

The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics pp. 1218-44

Timothy Besley and Torsten Persson

Spousal Control and Intra-household Decision Making: An Experimental Study in the Philippines pp. 1245-77

Nava Ashraf

Active and Passive Waste in Government Spending: Evidence from a Policy Experiment pp. 1278-1308

Oriana Bandiera, Andrea Prat and Tommaso Valletti

One Chance in a Million: Altruism and the Bone Marrow Registry pp. 1309-34

Theodore C. Bergstrom, Rodney J. Garratt and Damien Sheehan-Connor

Institution Formation in Public Goods Games pp. 1335-55

Michael Kosfeld, Akira Okada and Arno Riedl

Tax Changes and Asset Pricing pp. 1356-83

Clemens Sialm

The Effects of High Stakes High School Achievement Awards: Evidence from a Randomized Trial pp. 1384-1414

Joshua Angrist and Victor Lavy

Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models pp. 1415-50

Marco Del Negro and Frank Schorfheide

Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices pp. 1451-83

Lubos PÃ stor and Pietro Veronesi

Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values pp. 1484-1507

Asen Ivanov, Dan Levin and James Peck

Narrow Bracketing and Dominated Choices pp. 1508-43

Matthew Rabin and Georg Weizsacker

Why Do Sellers (Usually) Prefer Auctions? pp. 1544-75

Jeremy Bulow and Paul Klemperer

Learning about the Future and Dynamic Efficiency pp. 1576-87

Alex Gershkov and Benny Moldovanu

Bank Runs and Institutions: The Perils of Intervention pp. 1588-1607

Huberto M. Ennis and Todd Keister

Expectation Damages, Divisible Contracts, and Bilateral Investment pp. 1608-18

Susanne Ohlendorf

Field Centipedes pp. 1619-35

Ignacio Palacios-Huerta and Oscar Volij

VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation pp. 1636-52

Luca Benati and Paolo Surico

Art as an Investment and Conspicuous Consumption Good pp. 1653-63

Benjamin R. Mandel

Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico's Maquiladora Industry pp. 1664-71

Paul R. Bergin, Robert C. Feenstra and Gordon H. Hanson

Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities: Comment pp. 1672-75

Moshe Levy

Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities: Reply pp. 1676-83

Jan Eeckhout

Volume 99, issue 3, 2009

The Increasing Returns Revolution in Trade and Geography pp. 561-71

Paul Krugman

Bureaucratic Minimal Squawk Behavior: Theory and Evidence from Regulatory Agencies pp. 572-607

Clare Leaver

Incentives and Stability in Large Two-Sided Matching Markets pp. 608-27

Fuhito Kojima and Parag Pathak

Economic Catastrophe Bonds pp. 628-66

Joshua D. Coval, Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes pp. 667-99

Antonio M. Bento, Lawrence H. Goulder, Mark R. Jacobsen and Roger H. von Haefen

Should Urban Transit Subsidies Be Reduced? pp. 700-724

Ian Parry and Kenneth A. Small

Trade, Tragedy, and the Commons pp. 725-49

Brian R. Copeland and M. Scott Taylor

Strategic Leniency and Cartel Enforcement pp. 750-68

Nathan H. Miller

Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention pp. 769-803

Bartosz Maćkowiak and Mirko Wiederholt

The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility pp. 804-26

Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu

Tricks with Hicks: The EASI Demand System pp. 827-63

Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur

Observational Learning: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Field Experiment pp. 864-82

Hongbin Cai, Yuyu Chen and Hanming Fang

Misselling through Agents pp. 883-908

Roman Inderst and Marco Ottaviani

Reference-Dependent Consumption Plans pp. 909-36

Botond Koszegi and Matthew Rabin

Evolution of Time Preferences and Attitudes toward Risk pp. 937-55

Nick Netzer

Cooperation and Competition in Intergenerational Experiments in the Field and the Laboratory pp. 956-78

Gary Charness and Marie-Claire Villeval

Cooperation among Strangers under the Shadow of the Future pp. 979-1005

Gabriele Camera and Marco Casari

Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall pp. 1006-26

Sharon Maccini and Dean Yang

Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions pp. 1027-39

Alan Beggs and Kathryn Graddy

On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand pp. 1040-52

Peter Ireland

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market pp. 1053-69

Lutz Kilian

Exclusive Dealing and Entry, When Buyers Compete: Comment pp. 1070-81

Julian Wright

Corrigendum: Women, Wealth, and Mobility pp. 1082-1082

Lena Edlund and Wojciech Kopczuk

Volume 99, issue 2, 2009

Front Matter pp. i-vii

John J. Siegfried

Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twenty-First Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: Editors' Introduction pp. viii-viii

William R. Johnson, Robert Moffitt and Jane E. Voros

Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twenty-First Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: Foreword pp. ix-ix

Angus Deaton and Roger Gordon

Immigration and Inequality pp. 1-21

David E. Card and Andrei Shleifer

The Demography of Mexican Migration to the United States pp. 22-27

Gordon Hanson, Esther Duflo and Craig McIntosh

Do Immigrants and Their Children Free Ride More Than Natives? pp. 28-34

Una Okonkwo Osili, Alan J. Auerbach and Jia Xie

The Labor Supply of Immigrants in the United States: The Role of Changing Source Country Characteristics pp. 35-40

Mary Lopez and Fernando Antonio Lozano

Immigration and Poverty in the United States pp. 41-44

Steven Raphael, Andrew Postlewaite and Eugene Smolensky

This Job Is "Getting Old": Measuring Changes in Job Opportunities Using Occupational Age Structure pp. 45-51

David Autor and David Dorn

New Evidence on the Returns to Job Skills pp. 52-57

Katharine Abraham, Michael Watts and James R. Spletzer

Job Polarization in Europe pp. 58-63

Maarten Goos, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Alan Manning and Anna Salomons

Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts pp. 64-68

Dale W. Jorgenson, Cecilia Rouse and J. Steven Landefeld

Perspectives on the New Architecture for the US National Accounts pp. 69-73

Michael J. Boskin and Katharine Abraham

Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts pp. 74-79

Michael J. Harper, Brent R. Moulton, Steven Rosenthal and David B. Wasshausen

The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does It Presage the Financial Crisis? pp. 80-86

Michael G. Palumbo and Jonathan A. Parker

Expectations and Perceptions in Developing Countries: Their Measurement and Their Use pp. 87-92

Orazio P. Attanasio

Egalitarianism and Competitiveness pp. 93-98

Bjorn Bartling, Ernst Fehr, Michel André Maréchal and Daniel Schunk

Are Two Cheap, Noisy Measures Better Than One Expensive, Accurate One? pp. 99-103

Martin Browning and Thomas Crossley

Early Life Health and Cognitive Function in Old Age pp. 104-09

Anne Case and Christina Paxson

Life Expectancy and Old Age Savings pp. 110-15

Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French and John Bailey Jones

Approaches to Estimating the Health State Dependence of the Utility Function pp. 116-21

Amy Finkelstein, Erzo F.P. Luttmer and Matthew J. Notowidigdo

Why Are Recessions Good for Your Health? pp. 122-27

Douglas Lee Miller, Marianne Elizabeth Page, Ann Huff Stevens and Mateusz Filipski

Child Benefits, Maternal Employment, and Children's Health: Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions pp. 128-32

Kevin Milligan and Mark Stabile

Average Earnings and Long-Term Mortality: Evidence from Administrative Data pp. 133-38

Daniel Sullivan and Till von Wachter

Time-Use Patterns and Women Entrepreneurs pp. 139-44

Tami Gurley-Calvez, Amelia Biehl and Katherine Harper

How Do Remittances Affect Human Capital Formation of School-Age Boys and Girls? pp. 145-48

Cynthia Bansak and Brian Chezum

The Impact of Unexpected Maternal Death on Education: First Evidence from Three National Administrative Data Links pp. 149-53

Stacey H. Chen, Yen-Chien Chen and Jin-Tan Liu

Motherhood Delay and the Human Capital of the Next Generation pp. 154-58

Amalia R. Miller

Strategies for Promoting Healthier Food Choices pp. 159-64

Julie S. Downs, George Loewenstein and Jessica Wisdom

Mindless Eating and Healthy Heuristics for the Irrational pp. 165-69

Brian Wansink, David R. Just and Collin R. Payne

Time Use and Food Consumption pp. 170-76

Marianne Bertrand and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach

Fetal Exposures to Toxic Releases and Infant Health pp. 177-83

Janet Currie and Johannes F. Schmieder

Winter Heating or Clean Air? Unintended Impacts of China's Huai River Policy pp. 184-90

Douglas Almond, Yuyu Chen, Michael Greenstone and Hongbin Li

Voluntary Compliance, Pollution Levels, and Infant Mortality in Mexico pp. 191-97

Andrew Foster, Emilio Gutierrez and Naresh Kumar

Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates pp. 198-204

Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand pp. 205-10

John Felkner, Kamilya Tazhibayeva and Robert Townsend

Climate Change and Birth Weight pp. 211-17

Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone and Jonathan Guryan

Economic Effects of Childhood Exposure to Tropical Disease pp. 218-23

Hoyt Bleakley

What Matters (and What Does Not) in Households' Decision to Invest in Malaria Prevention? pp. 224-30

Pascaline Dupas

Commitment Mechanisms and Compliance with Health-Protecting Behavior: Preliminary Evidence from Orissa, India pp. 231-35

Alessandro Tarozzi, Aprajit Mahajan, Joanne Kannan Yoong and Brian Blackburn

Intrahousehold Allocation of Free and Purchased Mosquito Nets pp. 236-41

Vivian E. Hoffmann

Urbanization, Mortality, and Fertility in Malthusian England pp. 242-47

Gregory Clark and Neil James Cummins

Malthusian Dynamism and the Rise of Europe: Make War, Not Love pp. 248-54

Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth

How Relevant Is Malthus for Economic Development Today? pp. 255-60

David Weil and Joshua Wilde

Institutions versus Policies: A Tale of Two Islands pp. 261-67

Peter Blair Henry and Conrad Miller

Metals or Management? Explaining Africa's Recent Economic Growth Performance pp. 268-74

Laura N. Beny and Lisa D. Cook

South Africa's Post-apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands versus Macro Stability pp. 275-81

Brahima Coulibaly and Trevon D. Logan

Defensive Weapons and Defensive Alliances pp. 282-86

Sylvain Chassang and Gerard Padro i Miquel

Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-conflict Liberia pp. 287-91

James D. Fearon, Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein

Repression or Civil War? pp. 292-97

Timothy Besley and Torsten Persson

Do Juntas Lead to Personal Rule? pp. 298-303

Daron Acemoglu, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

Consolidation of New Democracy, Mass Attitudes, and Clientelism pp. 304-09

Adi Brender and Allan Drazen

The Real Swing Voter's Curse pp. 310-15

James A. Robinson and Ragnar Torvik

Lies, Damn Lies, and Pre-election Polling pp. 316-22

Elias Walsh, Sarah Dolfin and John Enrico DiNardo

Racial Bias in the 2008 Presidential Election pp. 323-29

Alexandre Mas and Enrico Moretti

Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets pp. 330-36

David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti

A Model of Discovery pp. 337-42

Michele Boldrin and David K. Levine

The Empirical Impact of Intellectual Property Rights on Innovation: Puzzles and Clues pp. 343-48

Josh Lerner

Intellectual Property Rights, the Industrial Revolution, and the Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth pp. 349-55

Joel Mokyr

Identifying Preferences under Risk from Discrete Choices pp. 356-62

Pierre Chiappori, Amit Gandhi, Bernard Salanié and François Salanié

Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation pp. 363-68

Miles Spencer Kimball, Claudia R. Sahm and Matthew D. Shapiro

Endogenous Effective Discounting, Credit Constraints, and Wealth Inequality pp. 369-73

Jeremy Tobacman

Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending? pp. 374-79

Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod

The Effects of Population Aging on the Relationship among Aggregate Consumption, Saving, and Income pp. 380-86

Karen E. Dynan, Wendy Edelberg and Michael G. Palumbo

Disentangling Insurance and Information in Intertemporal Consumption Choices pp. 387-92

Katja Maria Kaufmann and Luigi Pistaferri

Measuring the Financial Sophistication of Households pp. 393-98

Laurent E. Calvet, John Y. Campbell and Paolo Sodini

Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How? pp. 399-405

Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model pp. 406-11

Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles? pp. 412-17

Sumit Agarwal, Paige Marta Skiba and Jeremy Tobacman

What Do High-Interest Borrowers Do with Their Tax Rebate? pp. 418-23

Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse

What Do Consumers Really Pay on Their Checking and Credit Card Accounts? Explicit, Implicit, and Avoidable Costs pp. 424-29

Victor Stango and Jonathan Zinman

Online Ad Auctions pp. 430-34

Hal R. Varian

The Quest for QWERTY pp. 435-40

Tanjim Hossain and John Morgan

Skewed Bidding in Pay-per-Action Auctions for Online Advertising pp. 441-47

Nikhil Agarwal, Susan Athey and David Yang

Authority versus Persuasion pp. 448-53

Eric Van den Steen

Financial Risk Management: When Does Independence Fail? pp. 454-58

Augustin Landier, David Sraer and David Thesmar

Over My Dead Body: Bargaining and the Price of Dignity pp. 459-65

Roland Benabou and Jean Tirole

The Aftermath of Financial Crises pp. 466-72

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff

Expropriation Dynamics pp. 473-79

Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador and Gita Gopinath

Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008 pp. 480-86

Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor

The Margins of US Trade pp. 487-93

Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen James Redding and Peter K. Schott

Trade Liberalization and New Imported Inputs pp. 494-500

Pinelopi Goldberg, Amit Kumar Khandelwal, Nina Pavcnik and Petia Topalova

Plants and Imported Inputs: New Facts and an Interpretation pp. 501-07

Maurice Kugler and Eric A. Verhoogen

Another Look at the Impacts of Health Reform in Massachusetts: Evidence Using New Data and a Stronger Model pp. 508-11

Sharon K. Long, Karen Stockley and Alshadye Yemane

Disability Screening and Labor Supply: Evidence from South Africa pp. 512-16

Sophie Mitra

A Theory of Brain Drain and Public Funding for Higher Education in the United States pp. 517-21

Anamaria Felicia Ionescu and Linnea Ann Polgreen

Public Policy and the Dynamics of Children's Health Insurance, 1986-1999 pp. 522-26

John C. Ham, Xianghong Li and Lara Shore-Sheppard

How Should Public Pension Plans Invest? pp. 527-32

Deborah Lucas and Stephen Zeldes

Will Public Sector Retiree Health Benefit Plans Survive? Economic and Policy Implications of Unfunded Liabilities pp. 533-37

Robert L. Clark

Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities pp. 538-42

Jeffrey Robert Brown and David W. Wilcox

Implementing the New Fiscal Policy Activism pp. 543-49

Alan Auerbach

The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy pp. 550-55

John B. Taylor

Rethinking the Role of Fiscal Policy pp. 556-59

Martin S. Feldstein

Capital Reallocation and Growth pp. 560-66

Janice Eberly and Neng Wang

Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007 pp. 567-72

Gary Gorton

Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises? pp. 573-77

Frederic Mishkin

A Note on Liquidity Risk Management pp. 578-83

Markus K. Brunnermeier and Motohiro Yogo

Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility pp. 584-88

Ricardo J Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy

Leverage and the Central Banker's Put pp. 589-93

Emmanuel Farhi and Jean Tirole

Market and Public Liquidity pp. 594-99

Patrick Bolton, Tano Santos and Jose Scheinkman

Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy pp. 600-605

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin

The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies pp. 606-10

Douglas W. Diamond and Raghuram G. Rajan

The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report pp. 611-18

David Colander and KimMarie McGoldrick

The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment pp. 618-20

Catharine Hill

The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment pp. 620-21

David W. Breneman

The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment pp. 621-23

George Daly

Completing an Economics PhD in Five Years pp. 624-29

Wendy A. Stock, T. Aldrich Finegan and John J. Siegfried

Minutes of the Annual Meeting: San Francisco, CA, January 4, 2009 pp. 631-32

John J. Siegfried

Report of the Secretary for 2008 pp. 633-36

John J. Siegfried

Report of the Treasurer pp. 637-40

John J. Siegfried

American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics pp. 641-45

Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried

List of Online Reports pp. 646-46

Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried

Volume 99, issue 1, 2009

Governance Institutions and Economic Activity pp. 5-24

Avinash Kamalakar Dixit

Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All! pp. 25-48

Juan Carlos Conesa, Sagiri Kitao and Dirk Krueger

Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending pp. 49-84

William Adams, Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin

Estate Taxation, Entrepreneurship, and Wealth pp. 85-111

Marco Cagetti and Mariacristina De Nardi

Peers at Work pp. 112-45

Alexandre Mas and Enrico Moretti

Women, Wealth, and Mobility pp. 146-78

Lena Edlund and Wojciech Kopczuk

Class-Size Caps, Sorting, and the Regression-Discontinuity Design pp. 179-215

Miguel Urquiola and Eric A. Verhoogen

Taxes and Employment Subsidies in Optimal Redistribution Programs pp. 216-42

Paul Beaudry, Charles Blackorby and Dezsoe Szalay

Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs pp. 243-64

Robert J. Barro

Cognition and Incomplete Contracts pp. 265-94

Jean Tirole

The Value of Groups pp. 295-323

Shaun P. Hargreaves Heap and Daniel John Zizzo

The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health, and Crime pp. 324-49

Carlos Dobkin and Nancy Nicosia

Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data pp. 350-84

Jean Boivin, Marc P. Giannoni and Ilian Mihov

Risk, Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms pp. 385-92

Mark J. Machina

Insurer-Provider Networks in the Medical Care Market pp. 393-430

Katherine Ho

Group Identity and Social Preferences pp. 431-57

Yan Chen and Sherry Xin Li

Excise Taxes with Multiproduct Transactions pp. 458-71

Stephen F. Hamilton

Diversity in the Workplace pp. 472-85

John Morgan and Felix Várdy

Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption? pp. 486-508

Manuela Angelucci and Giacomo De Giorgi

Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations? pp. 509-27

Michael Douglas Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann

Democracy and Foreign Education pp. 528-43

Antonio Spilimbergo

Doing Good or Doing Well? Image Motivation and Monetary Incentives in Behaving Prosocially pp. 544-55

Dan Ariely, Anat Bracha and Stephan Meier