Improving robust model selection tests for dynamic models
Hwan-sik Choi () and
Nicholas Kiefer ()
Econometrics Journal, 2010, vol. 13, issue 2, 177-204
We propose an improved model selection test for dynamic models using a new asymptotic approximation to the sampling distribution of a new test statistic. The model selection test is applicable to dynamic models with very general selection criteria and estimation methods. Since our test statistic does not assume the exact form of a true model, the test is essentially non-parametric once competing models are estimated. For the unknown serial correlation in data, we use a Heteroscedasticity & Autocorrelation-Consistent (HAC) variance estimator, and the sampling distribution of the test statistic is approximated by the fixed-b asymptotic approximation. The asymptotic approximation depends on kernel functions and bandwidth parameters used in HAC estimators. We compare the finite sample performance of the new test with the bootstrap methods as well as with the standard normal approximations, and show that the fixed-b asymptotics and the bootstrap methods are markedly superior to the standard normal approximation for a moderate sample size for time series data. An empirical application for foreign exchange rate forecasting models is presented, and the result shows the normal approximation to the distribution of the test statistic considered appears to overstate the data's ability to distinguish between two competing models. Copyright The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2010.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2010.00313.x link to full text (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:13:y:2010:i:2:p:177-204
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Econometrics Journal is currently edited by Richard J. Smith, Oliver Linton, Pierre Perron, Jaap Abbring and Marius Ooms
More articles in Econometrics Journal from Royal Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing ().