Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

Tobias Adrian () and Arturo Estrella ()

Economics Letters, 2008, vol. 99, issue 2, pages 260-264

Abstract: Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

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