Living in a world of low levels of predictability

Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 25, issue 4, pages 840-844

Abstract: This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

Keywords: Forecasting; Accuracy; Black; Swans; Low; level; predictability; Illusion; of; control; Paradox; of; control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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