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Future states forecasting under uncertainty by using non-deterministic conditional relations

Juliusz L. Kulikowski

International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, 2012, vol. 4, issue 2, 134-153

Abstract: A problem of extrapolation of a large class of processes and of their future states forecasting based on their occurrence in the past is considered. Discrete-time discrete-value processes are presented as instances of relations subjected to the general extended algebra of relations rules. The notions of relative relations, parametric relations and non-deterministic relations have been introduced. For extrapolated process states assessment relative credibility levels of process trajectories are used. The variants of direct one-step, indirect one-step and direct multi-step process extrapolation are described and illustrated by numerical examples. Basic notions of extended algebra of relations are given in the Appendix.

Keywords: process extrapolation; algebra of relations; non-deterministic relations; conditional relations; forecasting; uncertainty; discrete time; discrete value. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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