Assessing the Accuracy of Event Forecasts

Ching-Chuan Tsong ()
Additional contact information
Ching-Chuan Tsong: Department of Economics, National Chi Nan University, Taiwan

Journal of Economics and Management, 2009, vol. 5, issue 2, 219-240

Abstract: Event forecasts, often generated from estimated econometric models, comprise a binary time series. In empirical finance, the market timing test proposed by Henricksson and Merton (1981) is probably the most popular method to assess the accuracy of these forecasts. Unfortunately, event forecasts and/or realizations are serially correlated, violating the independent identical distributed (IID) assumption. Consequently, the market timing test has an inflated size that can lead to doubtful empirical results. We find that the heteroskedasticity- autocorrelation (HAC) robust t-test with fixed-b asymptotics in Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005) and with the empirical distribution obtained using the naive block bootstrap can overcome this problem. As compared to several extant testing methods, simulation results reveal that the empirical size of these two testing procedures is quite close to the nominal size in finite samples. An empirical study is performed to demonstrate the usefulness of the naive block bootstrap.

Keywords: naive block bootstrap; HAC robust test; market timing test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.jem.org.tw/content/pdf/Vol.5No.2/04.pdf (application/pdf)
http://www.jem.org.tw/content/abstract/Vol.5No.2/English/04.htm (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jec:journl:v:5:y:2009:i:2:p:219-240

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economics and Management is currently edited by Cathy W. S. Chen and Shih-Wen Hu

More articles in Journal of Economics and Management from College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Yi-Ju Su ().