The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation

Prabirjit Sarkar ()

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1986, vol. 10, issue 4, 355-71

Abstract: The statistical objections raised against the Singer-Prebisch thesis regarding the secular decline in the terms of trade of primary products in relation to manufactures, do not have as sound a basis as is generally supposed they have on a priori grounds. The projection of that historical experience into the post-war years as made by H. W. Singer and R. Prebisch also holds good until the oil crisis years of the 1970s; it would hold true up to 1983 if oil and OPEC are exc luded as a special case. With the decline in the terms of trade of primary products, the trading terms of the developing region vis-a- vis the developed one also deteriorated. In view of increasing manufacture exports by the developing region, it is doubtful how far the two terms-of-trade indexes will move in the same direction. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1986
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