Assessing the accuracy of business‐level forecasts

Pete Brodie, Tullio Buccellato and Eric Michael Scheffel ()
Additional contact information
Pete Brodie: Office for National Statistics
Tullio Buccellato: Office for National Statistics

Economic and Labour Market Review, 2011, vol. 5, issue 4, pages 119-134

Abstract: SummaryThis article presents original work on some aspects of forecasting at the individual business‐ or firm‐level. In particular, two ways are suggested for assessing the accuracy of these forecasts based on the calculation of average percentage errors and the construction of a 95 per cent confidence interval. It is found that the quality of forecasts tend to become increasingly unreliable after two years and that the decay in forecast quality is inversely related to the frequency of the time series ‐ that is the less often a time series is updated/published the faster the deterioration in forecast quality.

Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/elmr/journal/v5/n4/pdf/elmr201146a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/elmr/journal/v5/n4/full/elmr201146a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:ecolmr:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:119-134

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
http://www.palgrave- ... subscribe/index.html

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic and Labour Market Review from Palgrave Macmillan
Series data maintained by Elizabeth Gale ().