On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

Hamid Baghestani, Mohammad Arzaghi and Ilker Kaya

Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 47, issue 2, 113-122

Abstract: We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999-2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.959656

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