THE IDENTIFICATION OF ENEMY INTENTIONS THROUGH OBSERVATION OF LONG LEAD-TIME MILITARY PREPARATIONS

Jonathan Lipow and Yakir Plessner

No 14978, Discussion Papers from Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management

Abstract: Intuitively, we would expect that an increase in the military preparations of potential enemies imply that the rival perceives an increase in the likelihood of future conflict. In this paper, we present a simple model that suggests that, surprisingly, the relationship is ambiguous. We find that (a) the specification of the social utility function; and (b) the rate of substitution between long and short lead-time preparations in the production of defense capability play a role in determining whether rivals respond to an increased future threat, by increasing or decreasing their long lead-time preparations.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10
Date: 2001
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:huaedp:14978

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.14978

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