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Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance

Jesus Cañas and Emily Kerr

No 1416, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.

Keywords: Manufacturing; Surveys; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 C83 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2014-12-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.24149/wp1416

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