Modelling sovereign risks: from a hybrid model to the generalized density approach

Ying Jiao () and Shanqiu Li
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Ying Jiao: LSAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon
Shanqiu Li: LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we study the sovereign risk by analyzing the solvency and the sovereign bond yield and propose a hybrid model which takes into account the movement of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events. This model combines the structural and the reduced-form approaches in the credit risk modelling and the sovereign default time can be decomposed into an accessible part with predictable components and a totally inaccessible part. As a consequence, the probability of default at a critical political event date is nonzero and the probability law admits atoms. We study this model in a generalized density framework to deduce the compensator process of default and show that the intensity process does not necessarily exist. We also apply the model to the valuation of sovereign bond and explain the significant jumps in the long-term government bond yield during the sovereign crisis.

Keywords: sovereign risk; decomposition of stopping times; sovereign solvency; generalized density of default; long-term government bond (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01158141v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Mathematical Finance, 2015, 28 (1), pp.240-267

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01158141

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