Theories of cycles and prospects of fertility in France

Les théories des cycles et les perspectives de la fécondité en France

Gérard-François Dumont

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Abstract: In an increasingly uncertain world, rulers and their public opinion need reassurance and are seeking, more or less founded and rational, invariants. Because they anticipate the course of an evolution, the theories of cycles take the place of reducers of uncertainty. With regard to fertility, how useful are these theories of cycles? Are they predictive? Gérard-François Dumont shows that this is not the case and examines the non-cyclical fertility theories.

Keywords: family policy; European Union; France; natural increase; birth rate; immigrants; demographic winter; replacement level; Theory of fertility; Cyclic theories; Malthus; Kondratieff; Population; Demography; Fertility; Demographie; Fécondité; Union européenne; taux d’accroissement naturel; Politique familiale; Taux de natalité; Hiver démographique; niveau de remplacement; théorie de la fécondité; theories cycliques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01428965
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Published in Jacqueline HECHT, Christophe BERGOUIGNAN, France PRIOUX, Chantal BLAYO et Alain PARANT Fécondité : représentation, causalité et prospective , CUDEP, pp.68-83, 2017

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