Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes

International Monetary Fund

No 2013/248, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; Guatemala; output gap help; debtor position; net; fund staff estimate; monetary policy rate; creditor position; Potential output; Basel III; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Europe; Caribbean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2013-08-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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