Paradas e Fugas Súbitas dos Fluxos de Capital nos Países Emergentes: Fatores Globais e Locais

Marcos Silveira and Ajax Moreira

No 1932, Discussion Papers from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA

Abstract: A conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos agrega um conjunto heterogêneo de fluxos de capitais, com diferenças marcantes em termos de finalidade, risco, maturidade e liquidez. Com esta perspectiva, o trabalho analisa comparativamente os fatores que explicam os eventos extremos ocorridos nos fluxos das três principais rubricas da conta financeira: o investimento direto, o investimento em carteira e a conta de mpréstimos e financiamentos. Estes eventos são identificados na literatura como paradas súbitas na entrada líquida de capitais de residentes ou na fuga súbita de capitais de residentes. O trabalho conclui que o risco global é a única variável relevante para explicar os eventos de parada súbita na entrada líquida de capital externo de praticamente todas as modalidades de capital. O poder de explicação de cada variável local difere entre os tipos de fluxos de capital. The financial account of the balance of payments aggregates a set of heterogeneous flows, with marked differences in terms of purpose, risk, maturity and liquidity. With this perspective, the paper analyzes the factors that explain comparatively extreme events occurred in the flows of the three main headings of the financial account: direct investment, portfolio investment and account for loans and financing. These events are identified in the literature as sudden stops in net capital inflows from residents or the sudden flight of capital from residents. The paper concludes that the global risk is the only relevant variable to explain the events of sudden stop in net inflow of foreign capital of almost all forms of capital. The explanatory power of each local variable differs between the types of capital flow.

Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2014-02
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