A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada

Michele Campolieti, Deborah Gefang and Gary Koop

No 26145565, Working Papers from Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department

Abstract: We examine fluctuations in employment growth using Canadian data from 1976 to 2010. We consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our …findings to modeling assumptions. The results from our most preferred model, which we selected using the Bayesian Information Criteria, indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources, with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors. Overall, we find external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than earlier research. We provide some possible explanations for these differences.

Date: 2013
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