Beyond Psychology: Prevalence of p-value and confidence interval misinterpretation across different fields

Xiaokang Lyu, Yuepei Xu, Xiaofan Zhao, Xi-Nian Zuo and Hu Chuan-Peng
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Xiaokang Lyu: Nankai University, Tianjin, China
Hu Chuan-Peng: Universitätsmedizin Mainz

No jvec3, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: P-value and confidence intervals (CIs) are the most widely used statistical indices in scientific literature. Several surveys revealed that these two indices are generally misunderstood. However, existing surveys on this subject fall under psychology and biomedical research, and data from other disciplines are rare. Moreover, the confidence of researchers when constructing judgments remains unclear. To fill this research gap, we survey 1,479 researchers and students from different fields in China. Results reveal that for significant (p < .05, CI doesn’t include 0) and non-significant (p > .05, CI includes 0) conditions, most respondents, regardless of academic degrees, research fields, and stages of career, could not interpret p-value and CI accurately. Moreover, the majority of them are confident about their (inaccurate) judgments (see osf.io/mcu9q/ for raw data, materials, and supplementary analyses). Therefore, misinterpretations of p-value and CIs prevail in the whole scientific community, thus the need for statistical training in science.

Date: 2020-02-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jvec3

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jvec3

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