Modelling and forecasting the volatility of the portuguese stock index PSI-20

Jorge Caiado ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The volatility clustering often seen in financial data has increased the interest of researchers in applying good models to measure and forecast stock returns. This paper aims to model the volatility for daily and weekly returns of the Portuguese Stock Index PSI-20. By using simple GARCH, GARCH-M, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold ARCH (TARCH) models, we find support that there are significant asymmetric shocks to volatility in the daily stock returns, but not in the weekly stock returns. We also find that some weekly returns time series properties are substantially different from properties of daily returns, and the persistence in conditional volatility is different for some of the sub-periods referred. Finally, we compare the forecasting performance of the various volatility models in the sample periods before and after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001.

Keywords: EGARCH; forecasting; GARCH; GARCH-M; leverage effect; PSI-20 index; TARCH; volatility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 C53 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Published in Portuguese Journal of Management Studies Nº1.XI(2004): pp. 3-21

Downloads: (external link)
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2077/ orginal version
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2304/ revised version

Related works:
Journal Article: MODELLING AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF THE PORTUGUESE STOCK INDEX PSI-20 (2004)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:2077

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