EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Quantifying the impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar prices

Hossain Kazi Abrar, Syed Basher and A.K. Enamul Haque

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Each year during the month of Ramadan (Muslim fasting month) consumption of sugar increased dramatically across the globe as Muslims traditionally break their fast with some sweet drinks or products. Since Muslims use lunar calendar, the months are not fully aligned with the Gregorian calendar or with the seasonal calendar for agricultural crops. In this paper, we quantify the impact of Ramadan on both the price and its growth of global raw sugar price. To set the stage for the empirical work that follows, we employ a dummy and a fractional variable to capture Ramadan in order to overcome the asynchronicity of time between Ramadan fasting (which is based on Islamic lunar calendar) and movement in prices (which follows the Gregorian solar calendar). In order to capture seasonality of production in sugar production, data on sugar price spans over thirty-four years so that the Islamic calendar makes a complete cycle of the Gregorian calendar. Using ARIMA and UCM models, we find strong evidence that monthly raw sugar prices in the global market increases by roughly 6.06% (or $17.78 per metric ton) every year ahead of Ramadan.

Keywords: Raw Sugar Price; Ramadan; ARIMA; Unobserved-components model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q02 Z12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01-02
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75941/1/MPRA_paper_75941.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Quantifying the impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar prices (2018) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:75941

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter (winter@lmu.de).

 
Page updated 2024-12-30
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75941