Working Papers

From Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
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2025-008: Economic Activity, Inflation, and Monetary Policy after Extreme Weather Events: ENSO and its Economic Impact on the Peruvian Economy

John Aguirre, Alan Ledesma Arista, Fernando Perez and Youel Rojas

2025-007: Financial Institutions and Climate Shocks: Pre-emptive vs. Reactive Lending Adjustments in the Case of El Niño

Viktoria Vidahazy, Gerald Alex Cisneros Rojas and Alvaro Alejandro Hinostroza Lamilla

2025-006: Adoption and welfare effects of payment innovations: The case of digital wallets in Peru

Arturo Andia, Jose Aurazo and Marcelo Paliza

2025-005: ¿La Inflación en el Perú Presenta una Dinámica Asimétrica?: Un Enfoque Cuantílico

José Aguilar, Romina Garibay and Ricardo Quineche

2025-004: Natural events in Peru: A multidimensional analysis

Jhonatan Vicuña, Maria Fe García and Renzo Castellares

2025-003: Diseño e Implementación del Piloto de CBDC Minorista en Perú

Milton Vega, Elmer Sánchez León and Arturo Andia

2025-002: El Programa Reactiva y sus efectos reales en las empresas peruanas

Nikita Céspedes-Reynaga and Lesly Gonzales-Berrocal

2025-001: The Effects of Business Credit Support Programs: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Balila Acurio and Alessandro Tomarchio

2024-024: Terms of Trade and Small Open Economies Business Cycles: The role of Global Shocks

Christian Velasquez

2024-023: Work from home and labor market outcomes in developing economies

Nikita Céspedes-Reynaga

2024-022: Ciclos Crediticios en el Perú

Cristian Alcaraz, Miguel Cabello and Rafael Nivin

2024-021: Dissecting The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: A New Approach and Evidence from Peru

Jorge Pozo and Youel Rojas

2024-020: Competencia Fintech en el mercado minorista de cambio de divisas

Alvaro Hinostroza and David Ramírez

2024-019: Nowcasting Peruvian GDP with Machine Learning Methods

Jairo Flores Audante, Bruno Gonzaga, Walter Ruelas-Huanca and Juan Tang

2024-018: Monetary Policy, Bank Heterogeneity and the Marginal Propensity to Lend

Angel Fernández Rojas

2024-017: Exploring the presence of Nonlinearities in the Peruvian Economy - Monetary Policy Implications

Fernando Pérez Forero

2024-016: Buen clima, buen comercio: los efectos heterogéneos de las expectativas de los consumidores sobre los flujos comerciales bilaterales

Mercedes Araoz, Renzo Castellares and Gustavo Sánchez

2024-015: Predicción del Riesgo de Crédito en el Sistema Financiero Peruano

Diego Yamunaqué Zavala, Miguel Cabello and Camila Rodríguez

2024-014: Second job-holding in an emerging economy: the role of household shocks

Nikita Céspedes-Reynaga, Ana Olivera and Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán

2024-013: Los múltiples empleos en Perú: características, tendencias y agenda de investigación

Nikita Céspedes-Reynaga, Ana Olivera and Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán

2024-012: Estimating New Financial Conditions Indexes for the Peruvian Economy

Fernando Pérez Forero

2024-011: Access pricing, data externalities and sub-acquirers in payment markets

Jose Aurazo

2024-010: Forecasting Peruvian Monetary Aggregates in a Nonlinear and Uncertain Environment

Fernando Pérez Forero

2024-009: Forecasting inflation with a framework for model and neural architecture search with tree-structured search spaces

Andrew Garcia and Marco Vega

2024-008: Does the transmission of monetary policycshocks change when inflation is high?

Fabio Canova and Fernando Pérez Forero

2024-007: La morosidad del sector agroexportador peruano en el contexto del Fenómeno El Niño: evidencia a nivel de firmas para el periodo 2013 -2019

Pedro Azañedo, Luis Casaverde, Denys Casiano and José Lupú

2024-006: Determinantes de la rentabilidad en empresas privadas no financieras de Perú: un análisis de datos de panel para el período 2004 – 2022

Bruno Gonzaga and Diego Mamani

2024-005: Informality and Wealth Distribution: A Heterogeneous Agent Model

Hamilton Galindo, Alan Ledesma Arista, Luis Yepez and César Salinas

2024-004: Efectos del Requerimiento de Capital por Concentración de Mercado sobre la Oferta de Créditos

Walter Cuba

2024-003: GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data

Juan Tenorio and Wilder Perez

2024-002: El efecto de choques fiscales anticipados y no anticipados en el Perú

José Aguilar and Erick Lahura

2024-001: Choques económicos y estrategias de suavizamiento de consumo de los hogares

Nikita Cespedes Reynaga and Manuel Talledo Carrasco

2023-015: Dinero digital y el Balance de los Bancos Centrales

Adrián Armas and Manmohan Singh

2023-014: Estimation and assessment of measures of the natural rate of interest: Evidence from Latin American economies with inflation targeting

Erick Lahura and Marco Vega

2023-013: What makes the poor stay poor? Poverty dynamics in Peru

Mario Huarancca Bellido, Luis Castillo and Renzo Castellares

2023-012: The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth

Carlos Madeira

2023-011: Reelección de autoridades locales: un análisis de su influencia sobre indicadores de bienestar distrital durante el período edil 2011-2014

Diego Camacho and Jhonatan Vicuña

2023-010: Choques externos en la economía peruana: un enfoque de ceros y signos en un modelo BVAR

Gustavo Ganiko and Alvaro Jimenez

2023-009: FX intervention and domestic credit in a partially dollarized economy: Evidence using microdata from Peru

Marcos Ceron, Rafael Nivin and Diego Yamunaqué Zavala

2023-008: Financing Imbalances and Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy

Jorge Pozo and Youel Rojas

2023-007: Financial inclusion transitions in Peru: The role of labor informality

Jose Aurazo and Farid Gasmi

2023-006: The Impact of the Agrarian Promotion Law on the Income of Formal Workers

Omar Ghurra and Renzo Castellares

2023-005: The Impact of REACTIVA on the Real Economy and on Bank Risk-Taking

Balila Acurio, Renzo Pardo, Jose-Luis Peydro and Jorge Pozo

2023-004: Análisis textual y legibilidad de las Notas Informativas de la política monetaria en el Perú: 2001-2021

Erick Lahura, Luz Pumacahua and Rebeca Sosa

2023-003: The Impact of Special Labor and Tax Regimes on the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Small Agricultural Exporters

Renzo Castellares and Gustavo Martinez

2023-002: Interest Rate Caps in an Economy with Formal and Informal Credit Markets

Jorge Pozo

2023-001: Loan Guarantees and Bank Incentives: Evidence from Covid-19 Relief Funds in Peru

Carlos Burga, Walter Cuba, Eduardo Díaz and Elmer Sánchez León

2022-013: Perú: Historia Monetaria y Cambiaria de la República (1821-2021)-Una Aproximación

Gonzalo Pastor

2022-012: Lending Rate Caps and Credit Reallocation

Carlos Burga, Rafael Nivin and Diego Yamunaqué Zavala

2022-011: Modelo de Proyección Trimestral: Una actualización hasta 2019

Jhon Aguirre, Johar Arrieta, Luis Castillo, David Florián, Alan Ledesma Arista, Jeffesron Martínez, Valeria Morales and Amilcar Vélez