Political Demography of the World Economy: Tropical Africa

Политическая демография мировой экономики: страны тропической Африки

Jack Goldstone, Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) () and Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия) ()
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Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Andrey Korotayev ()

Published Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The paper analyzes the international demographic processes and their social and economic consequences as well as the current demographic situation in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, and the extent and mechanisms of action of the demographic dynamics of the processes of socio-political and economic development and modernization in the region. Estimated rate of decline in the birth rate, laid down in a series of UN predictions are totally inadequate to prevent catastrophic scenarios - should be drastic acceleration of fertility decline. Trunk by reducing the birth rate in developing countries (particularly in sub-Saharan Africa) and bringing it to the level of simple reproduction should be to improve the coverage of women in secondary education and bringing it up to 70% of the female population over 15 years old. This can be achieved only if the immediate introduction of universal compulsory secondary education in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. However, given that this is a long-term measure, the effect of which, even when it starts to affect the immediate introduction of only 8-10 years (as the entry of girls who received general secondary education in reproductive age), you must simultaneously take other measures to reduced fertility, which can give a faster effect. In particular, it is necessary to implement large-scale programs providing contraceptives, providing access to services (and information about them) for the population, especially in rural areas. The combination of strategic (general secondary education) and tactical (mass distribution of contraceptives) measures is quite expensive, but modeling the demographic future of developing countries shows that in most countries it is the only way to avoid a major humanitarian disaster in the history of the modern world.

Keywords: demography; sub-Saharan Africa; developing countries; humanitarian disaster (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 92 pages
Date: 2015-06
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