Determinants of Budget Projection Errors in Latin America and the Caribbean
Jorge Baldrich (jbaldrich@udesa.edu.ar),
Israel Fainboim (ifainboim@imf.org) and
Mario Pessoa
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Israel Fainboim: International Monetary Fund
Mario Pessoa: International Monetary Fund
No 131, Working Papers from Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia
Abstract:
This paper analyses the effects of two relatively new budget institutions, a Treasury Single Account and a Medium Term Fiscal Framework, on government budget projection errors. We use a new data set covering a panel of 30 Latin-American and Caribbean countries for the years 2010-2014. Our empirical findings show that improvements in these budgetary institutions are associated with a lower probability of having expenditure projection errors as well as with lower levels of both expenditure and revenues projection errors. Other macrofiscal and political variables such as the economic growth rate, the ratio between government expenditure and GDP, the inflation rate, and the President´s election year are also significant determinants of the projection errors.
Keywords: budget projection errors; fiscal institutions; political economy of budgets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H68 H72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2017-04, Revised 2018-05
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https://webacademicos.udesa.edu.ar/pub/econ/doc131_0.pdf First version, 2018 (application/pdf)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sad:wpaper:131
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