Empirical Analysis under Additive/Multiplicative Output Uncertainty

Moavia Alghalith

No 301, CRIEFF Discussion Papers from Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm

Abstract: Empirical studies dealing with price uncertainty are abundant; for example, Arshanapalli and Gupta (1996) derived estimating equations by applying uncertainty analogues of Hotelling's lemma and Roy's identity to the indirect expected utility function (see Pope, 1980, and, Dalal 1990). However, their method is not applicable to the models with price and output uncertainty. Few empirical studies included both price and output uncertainty and focused on hedging. For example, Rolfo (1980) computed the ratio of hedge to expected output for cocoa producers. Lapan and Moschini (1994) calculated the same ratio for soya bean farmers. Assuming simultaneous price and output uncertainty, this paper empirically estimate the most two common forms of output risk: additive risk and multiplicative risk (see Honda,1983, and, Grant 1985). Then it empirically determines which form is more suitable. The theory does not provide a conclusive criteria for the choice between additive risk and multiplicative risk (see Honda,1983). Therefore, the choice should be empirical.

Keywords: Cost uncertainty; forward market; futures market; hedging; input price uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-02
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