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Metaprognostica

Thomas Cool
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Thomas Colignatus ()

General Economics and Teaching from EconWPA

Abstract: Metaprognostica arises when one studies forecasting behaviour. Deceitful forecasts can mean profits, and hence deception is a real problem for market forecasts. For governments, Public Choice studies the behaviour of governmental institutions and officials while assuming the hypothesis of economic 'selfish' rationality, and hence there can be deceitful forecasts in government too. For academic forecasters who live by the scientific code, metaprognostics is an exercise in humour. Traditional prediction theory, that assumes no deceit, is a rich source for possible avenues for deceit, and it also provides a benchmark for metaprognostics. Metaprognostics provides an additional argument for the proposition that a democracy is well served by an Economic Supreme Court.

JEL-codes: A0 C0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm
Date: 2001-10-22
Note: 15 pages html, no graphs
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